I, too, find myself oddly fascinated by the case. I assumed Sollecito and Knox were guilty until just before the verdict came in, when the story was gaining more traction here in the U.S. I can't recall what it was that I read that made me question their guilt, but it set me off on a quest to learn as much as I could about it. I've basically taken details reported in the media, blogs, etc., that disturbed me and looked for the defense's OR prosecution's take on that detail. Here are the main points, and what I understand to be the truth behind the "evidence" - listed in no particular order: I wish I could provide sources, but I haven't kept track.
One of the main things that I keep in mind as I read about the case is that the prosecution leaked many details to the public which have since been proven false and public opinion was turned against Knox & Sollecito very early on based on a lot of incorrect information. The same incorrect information still abounds on the internet and in many minds.
Bleach. I had read a number of times that Knox and/or Sollecito had purchased bleach around 7 AM of the morning following the murder. I'd even read that there were receipts confirming this. However, upon further investigation, I've read a few things refuting this. Most importantly, there was no mention of bleach in the prosecution's case. Supposedly there IS a receipt, but it's dated a month before the the murder.
DNA. I tend to believe the defense on this. The miniscule amount of DNA on the victim's bra clasp and the miniscule amount of victim's DNA on the knife blade cannot be discounted as contamination in the lab. Also, if there was really a sex game gone awry as the prosecution claims, you'd think there'd be a whole mess of DNA from all parties involved. And as to the presence of Knox' DNA mixed with the victim's DNA in the bathroom, well any rational observer could explain that as a normal consequence of cohabitation. On the other hand, there appear to be abundant examples of Guede's DNA throughout the crime scene.
Guede's confession. I'd read that he did NOT implicate Knox or Sollecito in his original confession. But later (presumably after he had been made aware of their status as suspects) he changed his story to include them. Naturally - as their involvement would be very useful for scapegoating the actual murder.
Knox' "confession" and implication of the innocent Lumumba, her boss, which many take as a sign of her guilt. I'd read that the police used a text message she'd sent earlier in the evening to Lumumba, after he'd given her the night off, which said "see you later." Apparently, the Italian police took this to mean they had an actual appointment to see each other later, instead of as a generic farewell. I'm assuming the police were considering Lumumba as a potential suspect, and I wouldn't be surprised if their line of questioning when interrogating Amanda led to this suggestion in her mind as well.
Knox' behavior. This is where the trial strikes me as most ridiculous. The fact that she turned cartwheels after police questioning doesn't really surprise me all that much. Perhaps this is how she alleviates stress. Who knows. I'd probably think it was a little weird, but certainly not evidence of guilt. She was seen buying "lingerie" (underwear) a few days after the murder, and she was with Sollecito. Well, as it turns out, she was shut out of her apartment and had nothing but the clothes on her back. I'd probably run out to buy underwear right away too. And as to the suggestive remark Sollecito was overheard making, well, so what. He claims it was in jest, and that wouldn't surprise me at all ... again, like the cartwheels, maybe a little humor alleviates their stress.
Knox' sex life. I'm shocked at how irrelevant it is to this murder case. She was (falsely) told she was HIV positive while in jail so that she'd give up the names of her sex partners, which totaled 7. 7 partners In her entire life, not in the weeks she'd been in Italy. Again, it's irrelevant, but many minds were poisoned against her by little tidbits like this.
Knox' character. You'd think that there'd be signs of something not quite right in a person who could do as the prosecution alleges. Yet in interview after interview, Amanda's friends, family and others who knew her could not point to anything that might reveal a side to her character capable of such horrific acts. I recommend reading this article, http://www.friendsofamanda.org/files/Radar_Knox.pdf, - linked from the FOA site - especially for the quotes from Lisa Pasko, a criminology professor at the University of Denver who specializes in young women who commit violent crimes. "If Amanda Knox is guilty, says Pasko, “this crime goes against everything we know about criminology.”
Based on all of the above, I believe the probability that Knox and Sollecito are guilty of Kercher's murder is extremely low.
Thanks for your summary.
The only place I differ from you is the cartwheel part. This behavior strikes me as genuinely insensitive and disrespectful but being disrespectful and insensitive doesn't make one a murderer.
I'd like to believe that the prosecution has a case but for the life of me, I can't see one.
One thing that struck me as weird is that Kercher's family was 'pleased' with the verdict - do they really think that Knox and Sollecito took part in the murder? Why do they think that way? I'd like to know. Surely, the Kercher family must be reasonable ...
As many of you probably know, in an Italian court early last weekend, two young students, Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito, were convicted of killing another young student, Meredith Kercher, in a horrific way in November of 2007. (A third person, Rudy Guede, was convicted earlier.)
If you aren't familiar with the case, don't go reading about it just yet. Hang on for just a moment.
If you are familiar, that's fine too. This post is addressed to readers of all levels of acquaintance with the story.
What everyone should know right away is that the verdict has been extremely controversial. Strong feelings have emerged, even involving national tensions (Knox is American, Sollecito Italian, and Kercher British, and the crime and trial took place in Italy). The circumstances of the crime involve sex. In short, the potential for serious rationality failures in coming to an opinion on a case like this is enormous.
Now, as it happens, I myself have an opinion. A rather strong one, in fact. Strong enough that I caught myself thinking that this case -- given all the controversy surrounding it -- might serve as a decent litmus test in judging the rationality skills of other people. Like religion, or evolution -- except less clichéd (and cached) and more down-and-dirty.
Of course, thoughts like that can be dangerous, as I quickly recognized. The danger of in-group affective spirals looms large. So before writing up that Less Wrong post adding my-opinion-on-the-guilt-or-innocence-of-Amanda-Knox-and-Raffaele-Sollecito to the List of Things Every Rational Person Must Believe, I decided it might be useful to find out what conclusion(s) other aspiring rationalists would (or have) come to (without knowing my opinion).
So that's what this post is: a survey/experiment, with fairly specific yet flexible instructions (which differ slightly depending on how much you know about the case already).
For those whose familiarity with the case is low:
I'm going to give you two websites advocating a position, one strongly in favor of the verdict, the other strongly opposed. Your job will be to browse around these sites to learn info about the case, as much as you need to in order to arrive at a judgment. The order, manner, and quantity of browsing will be left up to you -- though I would of course like to know how much you read in your response.
1. Site arguing defendants are guilty.
2. Site arguing defendants are innocent.
I've chosen these particular sites because they seemed to contain the best combination of fierceness of advocacy and quantity of information on their respective sides that I could find.
If you find better summaries, or think that these choices reflect a bias or betray my own opinion, by all means let me know. I'm specifically avoiding referring you to media reports, however, for a couple of reasons. First, I've noticed that reports often contain factual inaccuracies (necessarily, because they contradict each other). Secondly, journalists don't usually have much of a stake, and I'd like to see how folks respond to passionate advocacy by people who care about the outcome, as in an actual trial, rather than attempts at neutral summarizing. Of course, it's fine if you want to read media reports linked to by the above sites.
(One potential problem is that the first site is organized like a blog or forum, and thus it is hard to find a quick summary of the case there. [EDIT: Be sure to look at the category links on the right side of the page to find the arguments.] If you think it necessary, refer to the ever-changing Wikipedia article, which at the moment of writing seems a bit more favorable to the prosecution. [EDIT: I'm no longer sure that's true.] [EDIT: Now I think it's true again, the article having apparently changed some more. So there's really no telling. Be warned.])
After you do this reading, I'd like to know:
1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
Feel free to elaborate on your reasoning to whatever degree you like.
One request: don't look at others' comments until you've done the experiment yourself!
For those whose familiarity with the case is moderate or high:
I'd like to know, as of right now:
1. Your probability estimate that Amanda Knox is guilty.
2. Your probability estimate that Raffaele Sollecito is guilty.
3. Your probability estimate that Rudy Guede is guilty.
4. How much you think your opinion will turn out to coincide with mine.
5. From what sources you've gotten the info you've used to arrive at these estimates.
Then, if possible, do the experiment described above for those with little familiarity, and report any shifts in your estimates.
Again, everyone should avoid looking at others' responses before giving their own feedback. Also, don't forget to identify your prior level of familiarity!
If the level of participation warrants it, I'll post my own thoughts (and reaction to the feedback here) in a later post. (Edit: That post can be found here.)