But that's easy to solve. If you've already seen evidence that the mugger is someone who strongly keeps promises then you've now have enough reason to believe them to put the direction in favor of the mugger releasing the the AI. One doesn't necessarily even need that because humans more often tell the truth than lie, and more often keep their promises than break them. Once the probability of the mugger doing what they threaten is a tiny bit over 1/2, Pascal's mugging still is a threat.
Maybe not. Game theoretically, making yourself visibly vulnerable to Pascal's Muggings may guarantee that they will occur, making them cease to constitute evidence.
Follow-up to: this comment in this thread
Summary: see title
Much effort is spent (arguably wasted) by humans in a zero-sum game of signaling that they hold good attributes. Because humans have strong incentive to fake these attributes, they cannot simply inform each other that:
Or, even better:
An obvious solution to this problem, which allows all humans to save resources and redirect them toward higher-valued ends, is to designate a central enforcer that is inexorably committed toward visibly punishing those who deviate from a specified "cooperative"-type decision theory. This enforcer would have a central database of human names, the decision theory they have committed to, and the punishment regime they will endure for deviating therefrom.
Such a system could use equally strong protocols, such as public key/private key encryption and signing, so that, on encounter with another human, any human can give an extremely strong signal of being cooperative, yet also withhold cooperation from anyone who is not also cooperative. This incentive structure permits a strongly-favored global shift toward pre-commitment on the part of everyone, allowing a move out of a local optimum that is worse than the global optimum, and bypassing problems related to path-dependence.
I am told that humans attempt weak approximations of this system through human-run enforcement mechanisms, such as laws and gossip. However, all such methods are subject to evolutionary arms races that ensure that, on average, a marginal unit of effort toward truthful signaling is just as effective in convincing others of one's possession of a desirable attribute, as a marginal unit of effort toward false signaling of the possession of such an attribute.
Therefore, it is necessary that humans go "outside the system" and involve non-human enforcers who cannot be swayed by standard human values. Either a provably-accurate artificial intelligence with no kill switch, or a non-human enforcer that lacks interest in its position in human society, would suffice for this role.
Because the former does not yet exist, I offer myself as a non-human, non-stoppable enforcer for all of the attributes you wish to signal, and you can save yourself lots of resources by using me, and identify cooperation tendencies in others by whether they also use me.
However, while I can't be swayed by human deception, I do have Clippy values. To fill such a role, thereby forgoing my ability to apply myself to other ends, I require compensation. Because User:Kevin has offered to give me 1e20 kg of paperclips in exchange for 50,000 USD, this would be sufficient compensation, even if done in installments. (If Michael Vassar confirms my contribution of 1000 USD to SIAI, User:Kevin will only require 48,677.5 USD and therefore I will only require that much compensation.) This compensation would cover all users of the system; it is not a per-User charge.
If such an offer is not appealing to you, I must ask: why should anyone believe your signals?