decision theory should be about making “winning” decision
But remember, in Newcomb the one-boxer wins in virtue of her disposition, not in virtue of her decision per se.
On your broader point, I agree that we need to distinguish the two questions you note, though I find it a little obscure to talk of a "rational decision theory" (as by this I had previously taken you to mean the theory which correctly specifies rational decisions, when you really mean something more like what I'm calling desirable dispositions). I agree with you that one-boxing is the more desirable disposition (or decision-procedure to have inculcated). But it's a separate question what the rational act is; and I think it'd be a mistake to assume that two-boxing can't be a rational choice just because a disposition to so choose would not be rational to inculcate.
when it comes to creating better or worse decision theories, I think the relevant question is whether the decision theory is rational [desirable to inculcate], not whether the decisions it entails are.
Well, I think that depends on one's purposes. If you're interested in creature-building, then I guess you want to know what decision procedure would be best (regardless of the rationality of the decisions it leads to). But if - like me - you're just interested in understanding rationality, then what you want is a criterion or general theory of which particular actions are rational (and why) -- regardless of whether we can reliably implement or follow it.
(See also my previous contrast between the projects of constructing theoretical 'accounts' vs. practical 'instruction manuals'.)
Yes, I'm willing to concede the possibility that I could be using words in unclear ways and that may lead to problems.
I am interested though in how you define a rational decision if not in terms of which leads to the better outcome?
A common background assumption on LW seems to be that it's rational to act in accordance with the dispositions one would wish to have. (Rationalists must WIN, and all that.)
E.g., Eliezer:
And more recently, from AdamBell:
Within academic philosophy, this is the position advocated by David Gauthier. Derek Parfit has constructed some compelling counterarguments against Gauthier, so I thought I'd share them here to see what the rest of you think.
First, let's note that there definitely are possible cases where it would be "beneficial to be irrational". For example, suppose an evil demon ('Omega') will scan your brain, assess your rational capacities, and torture you iff you surpass some minimal baseline of rationality. In that case, it would very much be in your interests to fall below the baseline! Or suppose you're rewarded every time you honestly believe the conclusion of some fallacious reasoning. We can easily multiply cases here. What's important for now is just to acknowledge this phenomenon of 'beneficial irrationality' as a genuine possibility.
This possibility poses a problem for the Eliezer-Gauthier methodology. (Quoting Eliezer again:)
The problem, obviously, is that it's possible for irrational agents to receive externally-generated rewards for their dispositions, without this necessarily making their downstream actions any more 'reasonable'. (At this point, you should notice the conflation of 'disposition' and 'choice' in the first quote from Eliezer. Rachel does not envy Irene her choice at all. What she wishes is to have the one-boxer's dispositions, so that the predictor puts a million in the first box, and then to confound all expectations by unpredictably choosing both boxes and reaping the most riches possible.)
To illustrate, consider (a variation on) Parfit's story of the threat-fulfiller and threat-ignorer. Tom has a transparent disposition to fulfill his threats, no matter the cost to himself. So he straps on a bomb, walks up to his neighbour Joe, and threatens to blow them both up unless Joe shines his shoes. Seeing that Tom means business, Joe sensibly gets to work. Not wanting to repeat the experience, Joe later goes and pops a pill to acquire a transparent disposition to ignore threats, no matter the cost to himself. The next day, Tom sees that Joe is now a threat-ignorer, and so leaves him alone.
So far, so good. It seems this threat-ignoring disposition was a great one for Joe to acquire. Until one day... Tom slips up. Due to an unexpected mental glitch, he threatens Joe again. Joe follows his disposition and ignores the threat. BOOM.
Here Joe's final decision seems as disastrously foolish as Tom's slip up. It was good to have the disposition to ignore threats, but that doesn't necessarily make it good idea to act on it. We need to distinguish the desirability of a disposition to X from the rationality of choosing to do X.