Ok, I've read the paper(most of it) and Wei-Dai's article now. Two points.
In a sense, I understand how you might think that the Absent Minded Driver is no less contrived and unrealistic than Newcomb's Paradox. Maybe different people have different intuitions as to what toy examples are informative and which are misleading. Someone else (on this thread?) responded to me recently with the example of frictionless pulleys and the like from physics. All I can tell you is that my intuition tells me that the AMD, the PD, frictionless pulleys,and even Parfit's Hitchhiker all strike me as admirable teaching tools, whereas Newcomb problems and the old questions of irrestable force vs immovable object in physics are simply wrong problems which can only create confusion.
Reading Wei-Dai's snarking about how the LW approach to decision theory (with zero published papers to date) is so superior to the confusion in which mere misguided Nobel laureates struggle - well, I almost threw up. It is extremely doubtful that I will continue posting here for long.
OK, I've got some big guns pointed at me, so I need to respond. I need to respond intelligently and carefully. That will take some time. Within a week at most.
A common background assumption on LW seems to be that it's rational to act in accordance with the dispositions one would wish to have. (Rationalists must WIN, and all that.)
E.g., Eliezer:
And more recently, from AdamBell:
Within academic philosophy, this is the position advocated by David Gauthier. Derek Parfit has constructed some compelling counterarguments against Gauthier, so I thought I'd share them here to see what the rest of you think.
First, let's note that there definitely are possible cases where it would be "beneficial to be irrational". For example, suppose an evil demon ('Omega') will scan your brain, assess your rational capacities, and torture you iff you surpass some minimal baseline of rationality. In that case, it would very much be in your interests to fall below the baseline! Or suppose you're rewarded every time you honestly believe the conclusion of some fallacious reasoning. We can easily multiply cases here. What's important for now is just to acknowledge this phenomenon of 'beneficial irrationality' as a genuine possibility.
This possibility poses a problem for the Eliezer-Gauthier methodology. (Quoting Eliezer again:)
The problem, obviously, is that it's possible for irrational agents to receive externally-generated rewards for their dispositions, without this necessarily making their downstream actions any more 'reasonable'. (At this point, you should notice the conflation of 'disposition' and 'choice' in the first quote from Eliezer. Rachel does not envy Irene her choice at all. What she wishes is to have the one-boxer's dispositions, so that the predictor puts a million in the first box, and then to confound all expectations by unpredictably choosing both boxes and reaping the most riches possible.)
To illustrate, consider (a variation on) Parfit's story of the threat-fulfiller and threat-ignorer. Tom has a transparent disposition to fulfill his threats, no matter the cost to himself. So he straps on a bomb, walks up to his neighbour Joe, and threatens to blow them both up unless Joe shines his shoes. Seeing that Tom means business, Joe sensibly gets to work. Not wanting to repeat the experience, Joe later goes and pops a pill to acquire a transparent disposition to ignore threats, no matter the cost to himself. The next day, Tom sees that Joe is now a threat-ignorer, and so leaves him alone.
So far, so good. It seems this threat-ignoring disposition was a great one for Joe to acquire. Until one day... Tom slips up. Due to an unexpected mental glitch, he threatens Joe again. Joe follows his disposition and ignores the threat. BOOM.
Here Joe's final decision seems as disastrously foolish as Tom's slip up. It was good to have the disposition to ignore threats, but that doesn't necessarily make it good idea to act on it. We need to distinguish the desirability of a disposition to X from the rationality of choosing to do X.