New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

Kevin

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

General AI will not be made in 2011. Confidence: 90%.

The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest. (Note that this may be hard to measure.) Confidence: 95%.

The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven. Confidence: 75%. (Minor note for the nitpickers: relevant foundational system is ZFC.)

Ryan Williams recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP ((See here for a discussion of Williams work)) will be tightened in at least one of three ways: The result will be shown to apply for some smaller set of problems than NEXP, the result will be improved for some broader type of circuit than ACC, or the bound on the circuit size ruled out will be improved. Confidence: 60%

At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction "megachurch" means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services. Confidence: 70%.

Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities: Confidence 80%.

GAI: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2092
DADT: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2093 (assuming year timescale)
Riemann: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2094
Ryan Williams: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2095 (I, uh, hope you'll be judging that one; I don't follow complexity theory work as closely as you obviously do.)
Sex scandal: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2096
Korea: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2097 (when judging I assume any unilateral attack counts even if the other side doesn't retaliate, like the Cheonan

... (read more)

0Douglas_Knight15y

Why do you draw attention to this question and how did you reach this estimate? Unless you have knowledge of some change (eg, newspaper interest), this seems easy to estimate by the frequency of occurrence. This is a question about the steady state of the world, not about the future (modulo the not terribly rapid change in the number of megachurches). If you care enough to mention this, I'd expect you to care enough to have have some gut feeling estimate for this. In particular, 70% odds for the first such scandal to reach those who haven't heard about earlier scandals (if any) is absurd (again, unless you know about some change). Compare this to your prediction about RH!

2nhamann15y

Seems underconfident. Shane Legg, who is an AGI researcher, predicts: [...] Although it really depends on what you mean by "General AI."

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New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

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New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

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