95% confident that we will be no closer to knowing if P equals NP a decade down the line.
"No closer" may not be the ideal choice of words.As it stands your prediction would be invalidated every time someone publishes a paper demonstrating a technique that doesn't hep solve P ?= NP. That is one less dead end to explore...
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!