Oh, in that case I'd take the "no" side at 5:1 odds or lower. (I'm metauncertain enough that I wouldn't dare make bets in either direction close enough to my break-even point.)
The meta-uncertain excuse doesn't make a lot of sense to me- it's enough that you want enough expected gain to justify the transaction cost.
Or is there some kind of rigorous notion of meta-uncertainty you're appealing to?
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!