As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!
The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%
This sounds about right. GRRM expires before finishing the series: 30%.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2130
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!