On the other hand, this could make for good, low-stress practice at updating estimates based on new evidence/deductions. You probably should keep your original estimate in its place (since that's what people's replies are predicated on), but could you say here what you'd now estimate that probability to be?
Another good question. Upon further reflection, I'd have to admit that my thoughts in this area are....what's the opposite of rigorous? Fuzzy, vague, unconscious? Someone who is very experienced and skilled in an area that requires intangible intuition or a "feel" for something might have very good judgment without being able to articulate the bases for that judgment. But I'm not experienced or skilled in the housing market. For that reason, I think I should be very suspicious of my own subjective intuitions in this area. They are breeding...
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!