Hmm. Actually, it's because I haven't bothered to collect all the information I could, and so my bid-ask spread serves as a confidence interval. If it were too small, then I'd actually find it probable that someone else could do the research I haven't, figure out that the true value is on one side or the other of my interval, and exploit me.
If it were too small, then I'd actually find it probable that someone else could do the research I haven't, figure out that the true value is on one side or the other of my interval, and exploit me.
This makes sense. So the interval at which you were willing to bet would increase given higher stakes (as that would give someone more incentive to do the research)?
What I'm trying to understand is what confidence interval means in a Bayesian context, a 'credible interval' seems to be the analogous concept but even after reading the article I'm still quite co...
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!