It seems to me that I'm both pessimistic and optimisc (or anyway, not well calibrated). I got :

• Catastrophe by 2070 : 65.75%

• AI by 2070 : 98.3%

I would have given much less to both (around 25%-33% for catastrophe, and around 50-75% for AI) if you directly asked me... so I'm badly calibrated, either in the way I answered to the individual questions, or to my final estimate (most likely to both...). I'll have to read the FOOM debate and think more about the issue. Thanks for the pointers anyway.

(Btw, it's painful, the applet doesn't support copy/paste...)