I didn't know about […] Bayesianism […]

Did you ? My guess is, at an intuitive level, you were already close. Quoting from your post :

Historical investigations use three basic criteria to determine the probability of recorded events.

There were some flaws, of course, like when you said that "miracles are, by definition, highly improbable" (probably doesn't make the distinction between prior and posterior probabilities, and maybe (I'm not sure) some mind projection fallacy).

(Of course, that could just be me projecting my atheist slant to your believer's post. I'm not strong enough to judge that.)