As I see it, The Truman Show is, at its core, a Gnostic parable similar to The Matrix, but better executed.

Your essay fails to account for the deep philosophical metaphors of guns, leather, gratuitous exaggerated action and nerds doing kung fu because of their non-comformist magic.

I agree-- pleasure in thinking might not be part of the study of rationality, but it could very much be part of raising sanity waterline.

A gentle introduction to the mythos.

And let's not forget how many millions of patents there are; I don't think there are that many millions of utopias, even if we let them differ as little as patents can differ.

You may be right here. Utopias are usually also quite uninnovative. "All people will be brothers and sisters with enough to eat and Bible (or something else stupid) reading in a community house every night".

Variations are not that great.

I think socialism must fail because humans once freed from material want will compete for status. Status inequality will activate much the same sentiments as material inequality did. To level status one needs to embark on a massive value engineering campaign. These have so far always created alternative status inequalities, thus creating internal contradictions which combined with increasing material costs eventually bring the dissolution of the system and a partial undoing of the engineering efforts.

If technology advances to the point where such massive social engineering becomes practical and is indeed used for such a purpose on the whim of experts in academia/a democratic consensus/revolutionary vanguard... the implications are simply horrifying.

I feel obliged to point out that Socialdemocracy is working quite well in Europe and elsewhere and we owe it, among other stuff, free universal health care and paid vacations.

Comfortable, well maintained social democracies where the result of a very peculiar set of circumstances and forces which seem very unlikely to return to Europe in the foreseeable future.

I feel obliged to point out that Socialdemocracy is working quite well in Europe and elsewhere and we owe it, among other stuff, free universal health care and paid vacations.

It's not fair to say we 'owe' Socialdemocracy for free universal health care and paid vacations, because they aren't so much effects of the system as they are fundamental tenets of the system. It's much like saying we owe FreeMarketCapitalism for free markets - without these things we wouldn't recognize it as socialism. Rather, the question is whether the marginal gain in things like quality of living are worth the marginal losses in things like autonomy. Universal health care is not an end in itself.

I think what's mildly confusing is the normatively positive use of the word "bias," which typically suggests deviation from ideal reasoning. But I suppose it is a bias in the sense that one could go too far and update on every little piece of random noise...

"Inductive bias" is a technical term, where the word bias isn't meant negatively.

I think that's it, though there are at least two sorts of bad bias. The one you describe (nothing is important enough to notice or remember) is one, but there's also having a bad theory ("that annoying person is aiming it all at me", for example, which would lead to not noticing evidence of things going wrong which have nothing to do with malice).

This is reminding me of one of my favorite bits from Illuminatus!. There's a man with filing cabinets [1] full of information about the first Kennedy assassination. He's convinced that someday, he'll find the one fact which will make it all make sense. He doesn't realize that half of what's he's got is lies people made up to cover their asses.

In the novel, there were five conspiracies to kill JFK-- but that character isn't going to find out about them.

[1] The story was written before the internet.

"Do you have to be smart to be rich? The impact of IQ on wealth, income and financial distress", Zagorsky 2007:

How important is intelligence to financial success? Using the NLSY79, which tracks a large group of young U.S. baby boomers, this research shows that each point increase in IQ test scores raises income by between $234 and $616 per year after holding a variety of factors constant. Regression results suggest no statistically distinguishable relationship between IQ scores and wealth. Financial distress, such as problems paying bills, going bankrupt or reaching credit card limits, is related to IQ scores not linearly but instead in a quadratic relationship. This means higher IQ scores sometimes increase the probability of being in financial difficulty.

Apropos of http://lemire.me/blog/archives/2012/07/18/why-we-make-up-jobs-out-of-thin-air/

In the XXIst century within wealthy countries, people work hard primarily to gain social status. We often make the mistake of tying up wealth with social status, but most of the wealthy people we admire are also consumed by their great jobs. Celine Dion is very wealthy, yet she would still give one show every single day, including week-ends. I think most professors would feel exploited if they had to lecture every single day. Bill Gates is very wealthy and universally admired, however, as we may expect, he worked nights and week-ends as chairman of Microsoft. Every year he would read 100 papers from Microsoft employees about the state of the company.

...For many, wealth is merely a stepping stone to intense work. This may explain why people with higher IQs are not wealthier (Zagorsky, 2008): high IQ people may have an easier time getting rewarding work so they need less wealth....I used to openly worry that robots would steal our jobs and leave most of us in poverty. I have now concluded that I was underestimating the pull of prestige among human beings. We will make up jobs out of thin air if we need to.

Intelligence: A Unifying Construct for the Social Sciences, Lynn & Vanhanen 2012 (excerpts)

"IQ in the Ramsey Model: A Naïve Calibration", Jones 2006:

I show that in a conventional Ramsey model, between one-fourth and one-half of the global income distribution can be explained by a single factor: The effect of large, persistent differences in national average IQ on the private marginal product of labor. Thus, differences in national average IQ may be a driving force behind global income inequality. These persistent differences in cognitive ability - which are well-supported in the psychology literature - are likely to be somewhat malleable through better health care, better education, and especially better nutrition in the world’s poorest countries. A simple calibration exercise in the spirit of Bils and Klenow (2000) and Castro (2005) is conducted. I show that an IQ-augmented Ramsey model can explain more than half of the empirical relationship between national average IQ and GDP per worker. I provide evidence that little of the IQ-productivity relationship is likely to be due to reverse causality.

One question of interest is whether the IQ-productivity relationship has strengthened or weakened over the past few decades. Shocks such as the Great Depression and the Second World War were likely to move nations away from their steady-state paths. Further, many countries have embraced market economies in recent decades, a policy change which is likely to have removed non-IQ-related barriers to riches.11 Accordingly, one would expect the IQ-productivity relationship to have strengthened over the decades.

As Table 2 shows, I indeed found this to be the case. I used LV’s IQ data along with Penn World Table data for each decade from 1960 through 1990 (1950 only had 38 relevant observations, and so is omitted). As before, equation (3) was used to estimate the IQ-productivity relationship, while the IQ-elasticity of wages is assumed to equal 1 for simplicity. Both the unconditional R2 and the fraction of the variance explained by the IQ-wage relationship increase steadily across the decades. This is true regardless of the capital share parameter in question. Further, the log-slope of the IQ-productivity relationship has also increased.

• 11: Lynn and Vanhanen (2002) hypothesize that national average IQ and market institutions are the two crucial determinants of GDP per capita. They provide some bivariate regressions supporting this hypothesis; they show that both variables together explain much more—about 75% of the variance in the level of GDP per capita - than either variable alone, each of which can explain roughly 50%.

The Ramsey-style model of Manuelli and Seshadri (2005) would be a natural extension: In their model, ex-ante differences in total factor productivity of at most 27% interact with education decisions and fertility choices to completely replicate the span of the current global income distribution. In their calibration—less naïve and more complex then the one I present—a 1% rise in TFP (e.g., 1 IQ point) causes a 9% rise in steady- state productivity. Manuelli and Seshadri leave unanswered the question of what those ex-ante differences in TFP might be, but persistent differences in national average IQ are a natural candidate.

"Economic gains resulting from the reduction in children's exposure to lead in the United States", Grosse et al 2002 (fulltext)

We assumed the change in cognitive ability resulting from declines in BLLs, on the basis of published meta-analyses, to be between 0.185 and 0.323 IQ points for each 1 g/dL blood lead concentration. These calculations imply that, because of falling BLLs, U.S. preschool-aged children in the late 1990s had IQs that were, on average, 2.2-4.7 points higher than they would have been if they had the blood lead distribution observed among U.S. preschool-aged children in the late 1970s. We estimated that each IQ point raises worker productivity 1.76-2.38%. With discounted lifetime earnings of $723,300 for each 2-year-old in 2000 dollars, the estimated economic benefit for each year's cohort of 3.8 million 2-year-old children ranges from $110 billion to $319 billion.

...We calculated the economic benefit realized by reduced lead exposure in the United States since the late 1970s through a series of steps, each associated with a component of the model in Figure 1. First, we estimated the amount by which BLLs have fallen over time through secondary analysis of data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Second, we applied estimates from published studies of the strength, shape, and magnitude of the association between BLLs and cognitive ability test scores. In particular, we examined two published meta-analyses to arrive at estimates of the ratio of change in BLL to change in IQ. Third, on the basis of a brief review of literature on the association between cognitive ability and earning potential, we estimated the percentage change in earnings associated with absolute differences in IQ levels. Fourth, we calculated the present value (2000 dollars) of the percentage change in earnings.

...Schwartz (6) calculated that the total effect of a 1-point difference in cognitive ability is a 1.76% difference in earnings. Of this amount, 0.5% is the direct effect of ability on earnings. Schwartz (6) took this estimate from an econometric study by Griliches (19) that was representative of other econometric studies from the 1970s. Schwartz (6) assumed that a given difference in IQ scores observed in school-aged children can be expected to lead to a comparable difference in achieved cognitive ability in young adults.

The indirect effect of ability on earnings, which accounts for the remaining 1.26% difference, is modeled through two pathways. One is the effect of ability on years of schooling multiplied by the effect of years of schooling on hourly earnings. Needleman et al. (20) reported that a 4.5-point difference in IQ between groups with high tooth lead and with low tooth lead was associated with a 0.59 difference in grade level attained. The ratio of the two numbers implies a difference of 0.131 years of schooling for 1 IQ point. If each additional year of schooling results in a 6% increase in hourly wages, 1 IQ point would lead to a 0.79% increase in expected earnings through years of education. Second, Schwartz (6) modeled ability as influencing employment participation through influence on high school graduation. On the basis of the analysis of Needleman et al. (20) and 1978 survey data reported by Krupnick and Cropper (21), Schwartz (6) calculated that 1 point in IQ is associated with a 4.5% difference in probability of graduating from high school and that high school graduation is associated with a 10.5% difference in labor force participation. On the assumption of an equivalent percentage change in annual earnings, this leads to a 0.47% difference in expected earnings. Salkever (22) published an alternate estimation of the effect of cognitive ability on earnings. Salkever directly estimated the effect of ability on annual earnings, among those with earnings. The estimated association of ability with annual earnings incorporates both the effect of ability on hourly earnings and its effect on annual hours of work. He also added a direct pathway from ability to work participation independent of education.

According to Salkever (22), a 1-point difference in ability is associated with a 1.931% difference in earnings for males and a 3.225% difference for females. The direct effect on earnings is 1.24% for males and 1.40% for females. Salkever (22) analyzed income and educational attainment data from the 1990 wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY) in combination with AFQT scores collected during 1979–1980, when the respondents were 14–23 years of age.

For the indirect effect of ability on schooling attainment, Salkever (22) reported that a 1-point difference was associated with 0.1007 years of schooling attained for both males and females in the NLSY data. Also, 1 year of schooling attainment raised hourly earnings by 4.88% for males and 10.08% for females in the 1990 NLSY data. According to these results, a 1-point difference in ability is associated, through an indirect effect on schooling, with a 0.49% difference in earnings for males and a 1.10% difference in earnings for females.

Salkever (22) reported that the direct effect of a 1-point difference in ability was a 0.1602 percentage point difference in probability of labor force participation for males and a 0.3679 percentage point difference for females. In addition, he calculated that 1 year of schooling raised labor force participation rates by 0.3536 percentage points for males and 2.8247 percentage points for females. Subtracting the other components from the totals, a 1-point change in cognitive ability is associated with a difference in earnings of 0.20% for males and 0.72% for females through effects on labor force participation. Finally, in an analysis of the 1990 NLSY earnings data, Neal and Johnson (23) reported smaller estimates of the effect of cognitive ability on earnings. They included workers who took the AFQT test when they were 14–18 years of age and excluded those who took the AFQT test at 19–23 years of age to make the test scores more comparable. They also estimated the total effect of ability on hourly earnings by excluding schooling variables. Their estimates indicate that a 1point difference in AFQT scores is associated with a 1.15% difference in earnings for men and a 1.52% difference for women. Their estimate of the direct effect of ability on hourly earnings, controlling for schooling, is 0.83% for men; they reported no estimate for women.

The analysis of Neal and Johnson (23) has no link from ability to labor force participation. According to Salkever (22), a 1-point difference in ability leads to a 0.20% difference for males and 0.72% for females. If we add Salkever’s figures (22) to the estimates from Neal and Johnson (23), the total effect of a 1-point difference in ability on earnings is 1.35% for males and 2.24% for females.

Their summary estimate from pg5/567 is a lower-middle-upperbound of each IQ point is worth, in net present value 2000 dollars: 12,700-14,500-17,200.

(Note that these figures, as usual, are net estimates of the value to an individual: so they are including zero-sum games and positional benefits. They aren't giving estimates of the positive externalities or marginal benefits.)

"IQ in the Production Function: Evidence from Immigrant Earnings", Jones & Schneider 2008:

We show that a country’s average IQ score is a useful predictor of the wages that immigrants from that country earn in the U.S., whether or not one adjusts for immigrant education. Just as in numerous microeconomic studies, 1 IQ point predicts 1% higher wages, suggesting that IQ tests capture an important difference in cross-country worker productivity. In a cross-country development accounting exercise, about one-sixth of the global inequality in log income can be explained by the effect of large, persistent differences in national average IQ on the private marginal product of labor. Taken together with the results of Jones and Schneider (2006) and Hanushek and Kimko (2000), this suggests that cognitive skills matter more for groups than for individuals.

"Quality of Institutions : Does Intelligence Matter?", Kalonda-Kanyama & Kodila-Tedika 2012:

We analyze the effect of the average level of intelligence on different measures of the quality of institutions, using a 2006 cross-sectional sample of 113 countries. The results show that average IQ positively affects all the measures of institutional quality considered in our study, namely government eciency, regulatory quality, rule of law, political stability and voice and accountability. The positive effect of intelligence is robust to controlling for other determinants of institutional quality.

"Are Smarter Groups More Cooperative? Evidence from Prisoner's Dilemma Experiments, 1959-2003", Jones 2008:

A meta-study of repeated prisoner's dilemma experiments run at numerous universities suggests that students cooperate 5% to 8% more often for every 100 point increase in the school's average SAT score.

Later: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/group_iq_one_so.html

This finding was the first of its kind: In prisoner's dilemmas, smarter groups really were more cooperative. Since then other researchers have found similar results, some of which I discuss in Section III of this article for the Asian Development Review. It looks like intelligence is a form of social intelligence...Does that happen in the real world? If it does, does it mean that there are negative political externalities to low-skill immigration? That's a topic for a later time. Another worthy question: Why would high IQ groups be more cooperative anyway? Isn't cynicism intelligent? Sure, sometimes, but the political entrepreneur who can find a way to sustain a truce can probably skim quite a lot of the resulting prosperity off for herself. And people who are better at solving the puzzles in an IQ test are probably better at solving the puzzles of human interaction.

"Exponential correlation of IQ and the wealth of nations", Dickerson 2006:

Plots of mean IQ and per capita real Gross Domestic Product for groups of 81 and 185 nations, as collected by Lynn and Vanhanen, are best fitted by an exponential function of the form: GDP = a * 10^b*(IQ), where a and b are empirical constants. Exponential fitting yields markedly higher correlation coefficients than either linear or quadratic. The implication of exponential fitting is that a given increment in IQ, anywhere along the IQ scale, results in a given percentage in GDP, rather than a given dollar increase as linear fitting would predict. As a rough rule of thumb, an increase of 10 points in mean IQ results in a doubling of the per capita GDP.

....In their book, IQ and the Wealth of Nations, Lynn and Vanhanen (2002) present a table listing for 81 nations the measured mean IQ and the per capita real Gross Domestic Product as of 1998 (their Table 7.7). They subsequently extend this to all 185 nations, using estimated IQs for the 104 new entries based chiefly on IQ values for immediate neighbors (their Table 8.9). In both cases they observe a significant correlation between IQ and GDP, with linear correlation factors R^2 = 0.537 for the 81-nation group and 0.389 for 185 nations. McDaniel and Whetzel have extended the examination of correlations to quadratic fitting in a paper that demonstrates the robustness of these correlations to minor variations in individual IQ values (McDaniel & Whetzel, in press). But an even stronger correlation is found if the fitting is exponential rather than linear or quadratic.

Above link is dead. Here is a new one

http://mason.gmu.edu/~gjonesb/JonesADR