AlexU comments on Incremental Progress and the Valley - LessWrong
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Good point. It might be that there are very few business ideas that actually are rational to have confidence in -- otherwise, someone probably would have implemented them already. In other words, most business ideas, even the ones that turn out to be good ones, might be inherently bad gambles a priori.
It's also possible that business ideas aren't actually all that important, and that other factors dominate the success of a start-up. I believe this is essentially Paul Graham's position, for what that matters.