1001 PredictionBook Nights

gwern

I explain what I've learned from creating and judging thousands of predictions on personal and real-world matters: the challenges of maintenance, the limitations of prediction markets, the interesting applications to my other essays, skepticism about pundits and unreflective persons' opinions, my own biases like optimism & planning fallacy, 3 very useful heuristics/approaches, and the costs of these activities in general.

Plus an extremely geeky parody of Fate/Stay Night.

This essay exists as a large section of my page on predictions markets on gwern.net: http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#1001-predictionbook-nights

I explain what I've learned from creating and judging thousands of predictions on personal and real-world matters: the challenges of maintenance, the limitations of prediction markets, the interesting applications to my other essays, skepticism about pundits and unreflective persons' opinions, my own biases like optimism & planning fallacy, 3 very useful heuristics/approaches, and the costs of these activities in general.

Plus an extremely geeky parody of Fate/Stay Night.

This essay exists as a large section of my page on predictions markets on gwern.net: http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#1001-predictionbook-nights

Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011: 11% chance

Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012: 15% chance

Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013: 5% chance

This was found here at 07:45, 10/18/2011.

Yes, that's pretty amusing. On the other hand, remember that the further in the future a contract is, the more mispriced you can expect it to be - Intrade does not pay interest or otherwise compensate you for opportunity cost. (I believe this was covered in one of the footnotes.)

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