Not proven. The next experiment(s) in 2012 will say the same as those of 2011 and earlier.
Still, the result will not be widely accepted as a proof.
And I give another prediction. Several "Earth like planets" will be in the media. And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".
And I give another prediction. Several "Earth like planets" will be in the media. And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".
There were, sure. And the standard phrase "may be more habitable planets than previously thought" was also there.
And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".
That is exactly what has happened.
Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.
Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.
As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.
(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)