This is great. You have predictions quite opposite to mines and we will see who is more right quite clearly.
I wish there was more dueling predictions.
"OPERA or others will find a significant error in OPERAs measurements in 2012: 50%"
This already became true, even if we don't know the size (or even the direction) of the effect yet.
After hearing a talk of an ATLAS higgs researcher, an update lowered my higgs expectations a bit: ATLAS and CMS will present a signal signifiance (local and global) of 5 sigma with the data of (2011+)2012 in combination at some time in the future: 85%
With a presentation of results (and 5 sigma, from any dataset) in 2012: 70%
Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.
Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.
As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.
(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)