Sure. Let's just call it $25, since Groupon for my local area only has deals for towns 10 miles away.
I submitted what I think is a great entry, that took me around 100 hours of work + 20 hours from a partner. It's over 9000 words.
[Your bet would have been more usefully motivating if proposed before the paper was due]
Good to hear, and good luck (to the extent that luck is in fact involved...).
[Your bet would have been more usefully motivating if proposed before the paper was due]
On reflection... you already had $5000 to aim for. So now the stakes are up by, heh, 1%.
Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.
Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.
As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.
(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)