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Kaj_Sotala comments on The Substitution Principle - LessWrong
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I wish people would quit using this as an example of a fallacy. With the gross uncertainties involved in predicting presidential popularity, "current popularity" is probably the best predictor available.
It was mentioned as an example of a substitution, not necessarily a fallacy. Like I say in the next paragraph, the heuristic does work pretty well most of the time.