army1987 comments on The Substitution Principle - LessWrong

68 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 28 January 2012 04:20AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 26 January 2012 03:07:47PM 1 point [-]

The Planning Fallacy: ”How much time will this take” becomes something like ”How much time did it take for me to get this far, and many times should that be multiplied to get to completion.”

More like “how much stuff I have left to do divided by how much did I do today”; even ”How much time did it take for me to get this far, and many times should that be multiplied to get to completion” wouldn't be that bad, because that would mean I take in account the time I have procrastinated (or have been hindered) thus far and expect to procrastinate (or be hindered) for roughly the same fraction of the time.