Stuart_Armstrong comments on The Substitution Principle - LessWrong

68 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 28 January 2012 04:20AM

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Comment author: billswift 26 January 2012 02:27:17PM 0 points [-]

How popular will the president be six months from now? becomes How popular is the president right now?

I wish people would quit using this as an example of a fallacy. With the gross uncertainties involved in predicting presidential popularity, "current popularity" is probably the best predictor available.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 27 January 2012 08:13:51AM 0 points [-]

When asked at the beginning of a president's term, when we know he'll be less popular in six months, it is a fallacy.