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wedrifid comments on The Substitution Principle - LessWrong
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I wish people would quit using this as an example of a fallacy. With the gross uncertainties involved in predicting presidential popularity, "current popularity" is probably the best predictor available.
Not true. Popularity isn't an efficient futures market.
OK, what would be a better predictor of “popularity six months from now”?
Depends on the situation, but for example the president is reliably much more popular just after his / her election than two years later. To expect current probability just after the election to equal the president's popularity two years later is stupid.
Nor are existing futures markets.