prase comments on The Substitution Principle - LessWrong

68 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 28 January 2012 04:20AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 27 January 2012 05:44:01PM 0 points [-]

OK, what would be a better predictor of “popularity six months from now”?

Comment author: prase 03 February 2012 12:29:07AM 1 point [-]

Depends on the situation, but for example the president is reliably much more popular just after his / her election than two years later. To expect current probability just after the election to equal the president's popularity two years later is stupid.