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Vladimir_M comments on Conspiracy Theories as Agency Fictions - LessWrong
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One thing that seems relevant here as a distinguishing factor which helps point out some but by no means all "conspiracy theories" is that often conspiracy theories as such are long term and overarching. So for example, the Bavarian Illuminati were founded in the 1700s. Thus, a conspiracy about the Illuminati will claim that they have been running things behind the scenes for a long time. That drastically reduces their chances. Moreover, while there are many such conspiracy theories, they often label the group behind the curtain differently. Heuristically, conspiracy theories satisfying such properties should be assigned a very low value.
This doesn't really help though for quite a few conspiracy theories that are commonly ridiculed (e.g. Apollo hoax claims, and 9/11 Truther claims).
Some significant counterexamples to your heuristic are the criminal organizations with old historical roots, such as the Camorra or the Cosa Nostra. Their operations have been deeply conspiratorial and at the same time immensely influential, at least at the level of local politics, with institutional continuity of roughly the same vintage as that ascribed to the Illuminati.
That's a really good point. But even then, no one has ever been in doubt about their continued existence, and they've never had control of whole continents or the like. But yes, the basic point is sound and does substantially undermine my statement.