Less Wrong Polls in Comments
You can now write Less Wrong comments that contain polls! John Simon picked up and finished some code I had written back in 2010 but never finished, and our admins Wesley Moore and Matt Fallshaw have deployed it. You can use it right now, so let's give it some testing here in this thread.
The polls work through the existing Markdown comment formatting, similar to the syntax used for links. Full documentation is in the wiki; the short version is that you can write comments like this:
What is your favorite color? [poll]{Red}{Green}{Blue}{Other}
How long has it been your favorite color, in years? [poll:number]
Red is a nice color [poll:Agree....Disagree]
Will your favorite color change? [poll:probability]
To see the results of the poll, you have to vote (you can leave questions blank if you want). The results include a link to the raw poll data, including the usernames of people who submitted votes with the "Vote anonymously" box unchecked. After you submit the comment, if you go back and edit your comment all those poll tags will have turned into Error: Poll belongs to a different comment. You can edit the rest of the comment without resetting the poll, but you can't change the options.
It works right now, but it's also new and could be buggy. Let's give it some testing; what have you always wanted to know about Less Wrongers?
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Comments (302)
Current results: Red: 0%; Green, 33%; Blue: 67%; Other: 0%.
I'm gladdened to see that even though we don't discuss politics on LW, the green scum are in the minority here!
Now neither green nor blue are the absolute majority, with 34% voting “Other”. Those pesky sideways rope pullers!
But the sky is green. Just go outside and see!
What kind of question is, “Red is a nice color”? Some shades of red are nice and some aren't. Duh. (Also, who the hell has had a favourite colour for six dozen million times the age of the Universe?)
I got an error the first time because I put a percent instead of a fractional probability. Upon correcting this, I now see the following erroneous result: http://imgur.com/IASqy
After my vote:
" Mean 43.5 Median 75.0 Total votes 2"
Well this is mathematically impossible... My guess is the median isn't properly calculated for even numbers of votes.
...trolltastic.
"Mean 1.25e+18 Median 45.0 Total votes 8"
Specifying a lower and upper bound on the input should be required.
That doesn't really prevent trolling, so i'm not sure that it would be helpful.
It won't prevent trolling but it will minimize its effects. As it stands, you can input numbers like 1e+19 which will seriously throw off the mean. If trolls can only give the highest or lowest reasonable bound then they're not going to have much of an effect individually and that makes going through the effort to troll less worthwhile.
Thanks for spotting this! I looked into it, and it seems to be double-counting the most recent result when computing the median. It's an order-of-initialization issue; it thinks it's getting all the results except the new one, adding it, then taking the median, but it's actually getting a list of all the results. The fix is straightforward; I'll email the admins to apply it.
Your fix for the incorrect median calculation has been deployed.
I got a mean of -9.91765890411e+16, so something is still wrong.
No, that's unfortunate but correct (several people entered things like entered -3e+18 as their estimate).
Not necessarily:
Votes: 12 and 75
Mean: 43.5
Median (upper median): 75
While the standard e.g. wolfram alpha definition (which isn't normative) of the median would be 43.5 as well, it is an accepted practice (in plenty of CS grad classes, at least) to have the median guaranteed to be an element of the sample, normally the upper median is then chosen simply as "median". Hence the wiki definition having the qualifier "usual".
In fact, I was surprised that the median is strictly speaking not guaranteed to be an element of the set, using the majority mathematical definition.
So, not so much an error as a lazy CS convention ...
It correctly interpreted ۲ as 2. :)
Ahrgh, if only everyone was running TDT…
Or UDT. Or CDT. Or EDT.
Dunno... If you treat it as a zero-sum game (i.e. you don't only want your answer to be close to 80% of the average answer, but you also want other people's answers to be far from it) it's not obvious to me that you should vote 0.
I was granting for the purpose of responding that loup-vailant's clear assumption that normal game theory principles apply---each agent is interested only in the payoffs to itself to the exclusion of all else and the payoffs are such that it gets 0 for being wrong and >0 for being right.
It so happens that my own actual response (100%) doesn't conform to those assumptions. In fact my original reply to:
... was "No", and my original reply to loup-vaillant pontificated about the complete lack of payoff to any of the radio buttons. However I abandoned that point because the point about it not mattering whether the other guy is using CDT or TDT actually matters (somewhat).
In this game (ie. with an actual assumed payoff for correct and no negative payoff for other's success) the Nash equilibrium (and the outcome that a group of all CDT agents would pick) also happens to be pareto optimal. In fact, it outright gives the maximum possible payoff to every individual. Even inferior decision theories can pull that off.
Yes, but whichever decision theory you're using, you need to be ready for the few people voted for 100. Someone's going to do something to ruin it for everyone. And it wasn't just a few who ruined it - vs rirelbar jub'q ibgrq yrff guna sbegl bar ibgrq mreb, gur nirentr jbhyq or nyzbfg rknpgyl rvtug.
That would be why this subthread was based on a lament.
Forgive me for being new to the site, but I've see this kind of writing
in several places. How is it translated back to readable English?
It's rot13, a shift cipher typically used around here to obscure spoilers and spoiler-like information. Cut and paste it into rot13.com, install the d3coder extension for Chrome or something similar for another browser, or (if you like tedium) decipher it yourself.
thanks!
A function to automatically compute the averages should be implemented.
Not really -- if you check out the wiki page this type of poll is meant for discrete options, not for numbers or probabilities. For probabilities the "poll:probability" type should be used, which does automatically compute averages and medians.
awk is made for this, but it took me a few minutes to whip this up in java. I figured if numeric polls are used in the future, this can be used as a code-base. The indentation isn't coming through, but any IDE will fix that for you.
This doesn't work on arbitrary numeric entry polls, but for those, you can gather the statistics as you go along, putting it in the GATHER loop
EDITED to fix serious bug.
usage: paste this into PollStat.java, compile it. then run
So far, the winners are endoself and army1987. I wasn't far off.
~~~~~~~~~
I see a 'Total 123' but the table and chart only show 2 votes. The raw data also have 123 entries.
Total 139, chart shows 0 votes...
Hey everyone, I just voted, and so I can see the correct answer. The average is 19.2, so you should choose 17%!
Of course that's what you'd say...
Or maybe that's what I want you to think I'd say...
The noise in my simulations quickly drown out any actual logic and the markov chain reaches its stable distribution.
So what did you guess then?
I guessed "the only winning move is not to play"
(I didn't guess. rationalization: I didn't want to do the thinking, and can't see the results anyway)
Awesome! But since we're stress-testing it, let's try doing things wrong.
First thing that I noticed is that it doesn't let you post if there's a poll error. That's great! ... except it doesn't respect four spaces to put something in code format, so I can't easily tell you what I tried and what failed. Putting tests in their own comments to make it more obvious when something passes.
[edit]Oops, this also floods recent comments.
Total:25, but adding up the votes for each option gives 24.
Fascinating, I got two and two (total 33), and after refreshing I see the poll text but it won't let me vote, because I already voted.
Also, I think it's sort of amusing that this is the only thing I found that looks like a serious bug to me, but it has the least upvotes of my tests.
Less explanation of what exactly you were testing, so the fluency bias kicked in.
Polls are stored by their id, which makes it so they can't be edited after the fact. (Probably wise.) But what happens when you refer to an old poll by its id?
This is |pollid:10|, which refers to the poll from this comment.
Error: Poll belongs to a different comment
What about a future poll?
Error: Poll not found!
What if you then create the poll?
The raw poll data is sent with "Content-Disposition: attachment", which causes firefox to download it instead of letting me view it in the browser. Is this deliberate?
I think it's "Pinkie".
Well, no one's voting for her anyway.
Geeks and goths, man.
Rainbow Dash is the official spokespony of #lesswrong. She's been in the /topic for several months, now.
You jocks have been too cocky - I'm staging a Twilight Sparkle coup!
I just took Fluttershy into second ... I mean, if that's alright with you.
ಠ_ಠ
Psh, of course rationalists think Twilight Sparkle is the best pony.
It's a trick question, Twilight Sparkle is a unicorn.
Unicorns are a subset of ponies in the MLP 'verse.
How silly of me; next time I'll get my facts straight.
You'd better. My Little Pony continuity is SERIOUS BUSINESS.
She's intellectual, but she reacts irrationally to the Pinkie Sense.
Also, poor Rarity.
Great features ! Thanks and congrats to those who made it happen.
One suggestion : you can't see the result until you voted, I guess it's not to bias/anchor the answer, but then it would be nice to add an option "I don't plan to vote, let me see the results", so someone who doesn't want to vote for any reason can still access the outcome. Or else, there is a risk of people not wanting to vote but wanting to see the outcome will vote "at random" and skew the result.
I love what this poll reveals about LW readers. Many sympathise with Batman, because of his tech/intellectual angle. The same with Iron Man, but he's a bit less cool. Then two have heard of superman, and most LWers are male. And most of us don't care.
Spiderman! Why isn't Spiderman on there? I bet he'd be way more popular than that Flash guy whoever he is.
...Spiderman! I knew I was forgetting someone!
And the poll options cannot be edited after the fact (though the question can be).
Funny that Iron Man was the only Marvel hero on the list. If I had to pick one Marvel hero... he wouldn't have been the one.
On the other hand even complete anonymity could be sufficient for those who consider Spiderman a kind of pathetic whiny child.
You can clone polls. I wonder what the other polls are.
Error: Poll belongs to a different comment
No wait, you can't. Someone thought this thru.
I'm not conflating options, because I'm not really comparing Spiderman to not-Spiderman, I'm comparing Spiderman to the poll results in CCC's comment. The effect is the same as editing the previous poll to add Spiderman.
Also apparently it's "Spider-Man".
Excluding the ponies (which I didn't vote on, because I am one of sixteen people remaining on the Internet who doesn't pony yet), this is the earliest radio poll where the sum of the numbers in the column matches the "Total" number at the bottom.
It's a relief to know I'm not the only one...
I am glad that you used the word "yet": accepting the possibility of getting better is an essential part of overcoming a problem.
This is a problem. Ideally there would be a separate button next to the "vote" button (a forum that I read has that feature, with the button labeled "View Results (Null Vote)"). Second-best would be to allow people to submit a blank vote (which is not as good, since it's not obvious to people that they have that option), but it currently does not work that way (even though the OP seems to say that it does).
So according to the raw data, 100 people voted, but what I see displayed is 3 votes for answer 4 of 5, one for 5 of 5, and no total.
The "no total" part is independent of the bug -- it seems that scale polls just don't report totals or percentages. (They probably should.)
I would like a user preference that makes it possible to vote non-anonymously by default. But it's low priority - this is really awesome as is!
seconded
This is great and I upvoted it, but being meta I think it should be in Discussion.
This doesn't look right: http://screencast.com/t/qpRGihBG
The raw data says there are 13 votes for "0" and 20 votes for "1".
Looking at the raw data, it seems that at some point the True and False counts got reset, but then kept increasing as normal. The same thing happened in this poll and this one but not others.
As of my vote, I count 28 winners.
Won't you also ask about my favourite colour?
What about fuligin?
Do you ever have feelings of irrational nostalgia for hopelessly obsolete technology?
Vote up for NO.
Vote up for YES.
I used a Nokia 3330 until last year.
I'll just leave Mr. Show's "highest number" sketch here.
Doesn't accept "⌊∞⌋".
As well it shouldn't?
MP did not want it to accept either of those things; the notation used suggests "the largest integer less than or equal to infinity", which doesn't exist.
Well, use of those would make the mean meaningless.
It wouldn't be a problem if the polls had upper and lower bounds, because then you could exclude them (but you could also make the upper bound infinite if you wanted to). I don't think there's a need for them, though.
You don't need to use infinities to make the mean meaningless: giving answers such as 1e100 will suffice. On the other hand, NANs are traditionally just disregarded when computing means (i.e., the mean of 1, 2, 3 and NAN is taken to be 2) -- essentially they would amount to a blank vote.
NaN
According to the poll, my understanding of what qualifies as an integer is very, very wrong. 1e+19=the universal integer limit. NO EXCEPTIONS!
The largest number is about 45,000,000,000, although mathematicians suspect that there may be even larger numbers. (45,000,000,001?)
It does not seem to accept 'inf' or 'infinite'.
Which is too bad, as all incorrect options should have the same rights (for moral reasons).
....
According to my I Ching calculator, beyond 4 is a suffusion of yellow.
This appears not to be a valid response. Curious.
Can you still vote on retracted polls?
Testing...
Answer: Yes.
I can vote in a poll even after it's retracted...
I don't know if it's specifically addressed anywhere in the Terms of Use, but free use of polls can have some very hurtful results; it might be helpful to somewhere post a guide to what type of polls are appropriate and tolerated.
Can you be more specific about what you mean?
See my example poll in answer to wedifrid. Hopefully nobody thinks I was being serious about the poll.
What? About the same as the what you could write in comments already but prettier.
The overall total equals the sum of the individual answer totals, in contrast to previous polls.
Here's one: What if someone takes a poll asking if they should kill themselves? People could write "yes" in the comments, but they can select "yes" in a poll anonymously.
This may lead to more brutal answers to questions. The questions will be limited to whatever the poll creator types in, but that doesn't mean everyone will use common sense while creating their polls.
You may argue "they can already use comments as a polling system using karma" but I would then argue "okay, MaoShan still has a point, and it applies to karma, too."
Also
Most of the commenters here refrain from being antisocial dicks. There's no reason to believe anonymous polling will change that.
Anyone actually making life-or-death decisions on the basis of an internet forum poll has a non-trivial chance of being selected out of the gene pool for related reasons.
Sometimes you want or can accept brutal answers.
Individual responsibility. You can't legislate for or even concern-troll people into having common sense, even assuming common sense is a well-defined and useful property.
Ok good points. I like these.
Another thought: Just because a person asking people on the internet whether they should kill themselves isn't likely to survive in any case, this does not mean that LessWrong wouldn't be sued if said person posted a poll and it resulted in their death. For whatever reason, the US legal system has been known to grant large sums of money to people who are harmed by things that many consider inadvisable or "no-brainers".
And there we depart from the discussion of rationality into the realm of the law. :)
I am pleased to be able to give an immediate unequivocal answer on whether this is likely to be a problem: I have no idea.
lolol I like these points as well. (:
I suspect people would react against people asking that regardless of whether they include radio buttons. If I recall there has even been drama surrounding making observations about a former member suiciding. I'd be somewhat surprised if someone asking this question directly did not prompt that comment to be banned.
No, I haven't observed common sense to universally constrain posting behavior in general. However explicit polls don't strike me as sufficiently different or more powerful than regular comments, (inherently anonymous) votes and private messages that a move from informal expectations that people don't behave like @#%$s need be changed to a formal "Terms of Use".
Upvote this comment and downvote the karma sink if you think I should kill myself. :-)
(Edited to add smiley per Poe's law, especially in case someone sees this comment without seeing the parent first.)
Upvote this comment and downvote the karma sink if you think I should not kill myself. :-)
(Edited to add smiley per Poe's law, especially in case someone sees this comment without seeing the parent first.)
This is an especially good point because you're currently able to change the question after the results are in, allowing you to prank the poll takers by making their answers seem to support anything you feel like.
Cue in choice blindness dark arts for Fun and Updates!
(also for evil experiments and control groups, if someone figures those out)
"Don't be an asshole" covers it. If you need a guide to tell you that, a guide will not help you.
Oooh great idea. Bugs / Suggestions:
The answers are transformed into this tiny little poll code with a poll id, so I assume it's being saved to a database. However, the questions are not being saved with them. I can edit my question after the poll has been answered. This may result in some pranks later where you ask some obvious question like "does the earth revolve around the sun" or whatever and everyone answers "yes" and then you can change your question to "are you a Scientologist?" and you will see everyone's votes saying "yes" to that. Much more malicious changes are possible, of course. Also, if the questions aren't stored in the database with the answers, you won't have as many options later for doing cool things with your database full of polls.
The code: [Poll] does not work because it's upper case, but this is not an obvious reason for poll failure, so one may end up wasting lots of time trying to figure it out or make annoying requests for support. Making this case insensitive is probably a good idea.
The poll seems designed for very short answers. My elitism poll results look bad for that reason.
Feature, not bug.
I love this poll
Ha. I fail at random. In my defence, the universe is probably deterministic anyway.
Is (the seconds' figure in my watch) mod 5 random enough?
I used the least significant digit on my time-remaining-to-full-charge. And ended up propping up the most populated entry.
To anyone thinking this is not random, with 42 votes in:
The p-value is 0.895 (this is the probability of seeing at least this much non-randomness, assuming a uniform distribution)
The entropy is 2.302bits instead of log(5) = 2.322bits, for 0.02bits KL-distance (this is the number of bits you lose for encoding one of these votes as if it was random)
If you think you see a pattern here, you should either see a doctor or a statistician.
I wish I could see a doctor-statistician. Or at least a doctor who understood statistics.
Yvain might some day have his own practice.
Looks like we're better at randomness than the rest of the population. If I asked random people for a random number from 1 to 10, I wouldn't be surprised to see substantially less than 3.322 bits of entropy per number (e.g., many more than 10% of the people choosing 7).
I rolled 1d6, intending to reroll any 6s.
I used random.org to generate my answer.
But, when I submitted it, I got the following:
First Answer 0 (0%)
Second Answer 0 (0%)
Third Answer 0 (0%)
Fourth Answer 1 (2%)
Fifth Answer 0 (0%)
Total 58 (100%)
The raw data contained all the 58 rows, however. Seems like there might be a bug in the result-rendering code.
Offtopic: testing strikethrough: -one-, ~~two~~, <s>three</s>, <del>four</del>, <strike>five</strike>, --six--. Apparently still doesn't work.
Anyway, polls are totally awesome, thanks for implementing!
How to aggregate across the distribution of possibilities? Average? Median? Most likely range?
I'm 33, so it wouldn't take too much life extension to get me to 133, but a fair amount... I'd rate the probabilities as roughly 40%, 30%, 10%, 20%. So, each of the three answers is different.
The most likely range. I'd rather this wasn't skewed by people putting down "more" just because they anticipate a tiny probability of a vast lifetime, but failing that expect to be dead as usual before very long.
I don't see how to correct for that.
Should I do a weighted sum over descendant entities I deem fractionally me, or just over entities I deem "me"?
However you choose to calculate it, that's your estimate of remaining QALY's.
For descendant entities you deem fully "you", but with fractional chances of existing, see my reply to Luke.
(nods) Saw that, makes sense. Just so you know, at least one "more" answer reflects, not a confident prediction that the answerer will live more than a millenium, nor a two-order-of-magnitude increase in quality of life, but a willingness to identify fractionally with billions of living people.
The bug concerning reporting of results is still present: currently the counts for the four categories are displayed as 9, 0, 0, 0, with a total of 39. According to the downloaded data, the counts are 28, 4, 1, 6 = 39.
Would it be useful to have a "choose all that apply" question type?
BUG: The display of the data for the multiple-choice polls seems to reset at some point, though I can still see the complete raw data when clicking at them... e.g. right now, though 68 people have voted for the "best pony", at the display I only see the choice of the 68th person (Applejack) having a single vote, and all the other choices are falsely at zero.
Similar things with other polls.
Here's a screenshot of that with my poll:
I still have access to the raw poll data.
Confirmed. The issue is in an interaction between the polling code and Reddit's custom ORM which causes vote-totals to be cached, but not persisted to the database correctly. I have a fix, which I'm testing now. All polls created before the fix is applied will be affected; it'll be possible to restore them, but it'd take some work which isn't a priority for me.
I've just deployed a fix that will apply to all new poll votes. Thanks jimrandomh for passing on the bug report and initial patch.
It's a shame that Randall Munroe collated the two spellings together in the results of his survey. (And he even kept “periwinkle” and “perrywinkle” separate.)
I think of 'grey' as bluish and 'gray' as neutral.
Odd - I think of "grey" as brownish and "gray" as neutral.
In a previous discussion, there was someone who thought of "grey" as yellowish, but the majority went for bluish.
My synaesthesia thinks "grey" is more bluish and "gray" more reddish, but I said "no" to the poll before considering this. Now pondering how much my first answer was wrong...
Gray is darker than grey.
My poll is now broken. The specific answers don't show up anymore in the results, only the totals at the bottom of each question show. Elitism Poll
The FAI hidden deep in the poll code logic refuses to run stupid and trollish polls.
LMAO
I disagree with the sentiment but I can still laugh at good humor.