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ThrustVectoring comments on Rationality: Appreciating Cognitive Algorithms - LessWrong
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That's because the "I believe" part of "I believe X" acts as a kind of socially acceptable way to back off from a statement if it turns out to be wrong. People tend to say "I believe X" when they want to be able to later admit that they were wrong about X, so that's why it's less of a probabilistic commitment.