BlazeOrangeDeer comments on Rationality: Appreciating Cognitive Algorithms - LessWrong

37 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 06 October 2012 09:59AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 06 October 2012 12:03:52PM 14 points [-]

Or if it feels different to say "I believe the Democrats will win the election!" than to say, "The Democrats will win the election", this is an important warning of belief-alief divergence.

To me, the first means that I assign a probability > 50%, the latter that I assign a probability close to 1.

Comment author: BlazeOrangeDeer 07 October 2012 07:57:42AM 0 points [-]

I wouldn't say that for something at just over 50%, i'd say "will probably". An unqualified statement implies confidence.