army1987 comments on Rationality: Appreciating Cognitive Algorithms - LessWrong
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Why not just say "The democrats are more likely than not to win the next election?"
I'd say “I think” if I only have poor knowledge of the facts, have to heavily rely on my priors and my intuition, and hence I could easily shift my probability assignment (and narrow what E.T. Jaynes calls my Ap distribution) by (e.g.) looking stuff up, if I could be bothered to. I'd omit it if I already had as much relevant information as I could reasonably gather, and so I don't expect my probability assignment to shift or my Ap distribution to narrow in the near future.