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Morendil comments on Raising the forecasting waterline (part 1) - LessWrong
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Talking about increments of 5% runs counter to my intuitions regarding good thinking about probability estimates. For most purposes, the difference between 90% and 95% is significantly larger than the difference between 50% and 55%. Think in logs.
Yes, near the extremes it makes a difference - but we're using a Brier scoring rule, averaged over all days a forecast is open. That makes thinking in logs less important - 99% isn't much worse than 100% on errors. I'll discuss that in pt.2 under 'loss function'.
Hooray!