Basically, I think that the evidence in favor of physicalism is a lot stronger than the evidence that the hard problem of consciousness isn't solvable

The probability of physicalism would need to approach 1 in order for that to be the case.

It's a lot closer to 1 than a clever-sounding impossibility argument. See: http://lesswrong.com/lw/ph/can_you_prove_two_particles_are_identical/