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wedrifid comments on Right for the Wrong Reasons - LessWrong
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Are you going to reward me for being wrong for the right reasons? If not I want to know who is skimming 'credit' off the top.
It's very difficult for humans to actually isolate such cases, but in principle yes. After all, one in twenty predictions that you make with 95% confidence should turn out to be wrong. Just as lucking into accuracy doesn't mean you're right, lucking into inaccuracy doesn't mean you're wrong.
Should you be punished if your predictions with 95% confidence come true 97% of a large number of trials? If not, someone is still skimming.
Yes. Underconfidence is as much an error as overconfidence is, albeit a less common one.
Of course. After all, that means that your predictions with 5% confidence came true in only 3% of trials.
You're the one skimming credit off the top.
My interpretation of this point is that the person doing the rewarding and punishing is the person doing the predicting.
This hints at the deeper problem, too: that the subconscious reinforcement of these predictions is causing them to continue. the most common reward is that a wrong prediction seems right. For most people, that is a reward in and of itself.
So the real question is: are you going to reward yourself for being wrong for the right reasons? how about being right for the wrong reasons?