Decius comments on Right for the Wrong Reasons - LessWrong

14 Post author: katydee 24 January 2013 12:02AM

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Comment author: Decius 30 January 2013 12:37:13AM 0 points [-]

Should you be punished if your predictions with 95% confidence come true 97% of a large number of trials? If not, someone is still skimming.

Comment author: katydee 30 January 2013 02:54:48AM * 2 points [-]

Yes. Underconfidence is as much an error as overconfidence is, albeit a less common one.

Comment author: nshepperd 30 January 2013 12:39:42AM 1 point [-]

Of course. After all, that means that your predictions with 5% confidence came true in only 3% of trials.