Here's another installment of rationality quotes. The usual rules apply:
Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself.
Do not quote from Less Wrong itself, Overcoming Bias, or HPMoR.
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.
This is a claim about reality. Do we actually know that pulling numbers out of your arse actually does produce better results than pulling the decisions out directly? Or does it just feel better, because you have a theory now?
4Richard_Kennaway
Does Paul Crowley fall under the recent clarification that the spirit of the quotes thread is against quoting LessWrong regulars?
Here's another installment of rationality quotes. The usual rules apply: