passive_fist comments on Luck I: Finding White Swans - LessWrong

25 Post author: fowlertm 12 December 2013 05:56PM

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Comment author: passive_fist 13 December 2013 07:26:40PM *  8 points [-]

Right off the bat, there are some very worrying issues. For instance, too much focus on psychological differences, but not enough focus on body language and physical appearance (which are known to be huge factors in how we are percieved by other people). These are all issues that self-selection bias produces.

And the part where these differences are used to suggest 'better' behaviors seems to be a surface analysis, without deeper consideration of problems.

For instance, it is suggested that unlucky people should go out and have more experiences. But perhaps it is simply the case that they have tried having new experiences and connecting with people but were overwhelmingly rejected, thus they learned to avoid new experiences. And as to why they were rejected, perhaps they did not know how to approach people or had some other fundamental issue.

For an extreme example of the latter, consider telling an african-american person to 'go out and talk to more people' in Indiana in 1922. This is an extreme example, but cultural/ethnic divisions still very much exist, even in people of the same race, and make it hard for a lot of people to connect and make attempts at connection seem contemptuous.

Comment author: ialdabaoth 13 December 2013 07:45:39PM 8 points [-]

For instance, it is suggested that unlucky people should go out and have more experiences. But perhaps it is simply the case that they have tried having new experiences and connecting with people but were overwhelmingly rejected, thus they learned to avoid new experiences. And as to why they were rejected, perhaps they did not know how to approach people or had some other fundamental issue.

I cannot overemphasize this enough. This, this, a thousand times this. Telling someone to go out and have experiences is useless if they cannot understand how to bias their potential experiences towards positive.

Comment author: [deleted] 14 December 2013 07:23:46PM 0 points [-]

From the OP:

(Clever readers may be saying to themselves: "okay, but doesn't all this also make the chances of encountering black swans higher as well?" We will address these concerns when we talk about principles three and four.)

Comment author: ialdabaoth 14 December 2013 07:36:09PM 2 points [-]

In that case, I eagerly await that post.