Pablo_Stafforini comments on Common sense as a prior - LessWrong

33 Post author: Nick_Beckstead 11 August 2013 06:18PM

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Comment author: Pablo_Stafforini 11 August 2013 08:05:22PM *  4 points [-]

Certainly many elite physicists were persuaded by similar arguments before I wrote them up.

Okay, so you are saying that these arguments were available at the time elite physicists made up their minds on which interpretation of QM was correct, and yet only a minority of elite physicists were persuaded. What evidential weight do you assign to this fact? More importantly, what evidential weight should the target audience of your QM sequence assign to it? To conclude that MWI is very likely true after reading your QM sequence, from a prior position of relative agnosticism, seems to me to give excessive weight to my own ability to assess arguments, relative to the ability of people who are smarter than me and have the relevant technical expertise--most of whom, to repeat, were not persuaded by those arguments.