Tenoke comments on What Bayesianism taught me - LessWrong

62 Post author: Tyrrell_McAllister 12 August 2013 06:59AM

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Comment author: Tenoke 11 August 2013 02:51:20PM *  0 points [-]

Mathematically, I should be considering this in making plans for tomorrow, but practically it's a waste of time thinking about it.

And then one day 4 years later you find out that a black swan event has occurred and because you never prepare for such things ('it's a waste of time thinking about it') you will face losses big enough to influence you greatly all at once.

Or not. - that's the thing with rare events.