Tyrrell_McAllister comments on What Bayesianism taught me - LessWrong

62 Post author: Tyrrell_McAllister 12 August 2013 06:59AM

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Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 13 August 2013 10:18:49PM *  4 points [-]

Well ... you can have an expected direction, just not if you account for magnitudes.

Yes, on reflection it was a poor choice of words. I was using "expect" in that sense according to which one expects a parameter to equal zero if the expected value of that parameter is zero. However, while "expected value" has a well-established technical meaning, "expect" alone may not. It is certainly reasonably natural to read what I wrote as meaning "my opinion is equally likely to be swayed in either direction," which, as you point out, is incorrect. I've added a footnote to clarify my meaning.