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TimS comments on What Bayesianism taught me - LessWrong
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Nightly news being so incredibly vacuous is pretty strong evidence that the mean citizen is bad at weighing probabilistic evidence. (e.g. "What common household item might kill you? Find out at the end of this newshour.")
"Knife", "bleach", "alcohol", "(overdose of) medication", "rope", "plastic bag", "Hufflepuff bones...".