= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
poiuyt comments on Circular belief updating - LessWrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (50)
The apparent paradox is resolved as long as you note that P(Daisy thinks Dark does exist|Dark does exist) > P(Daisy thinks Dark doesn't exist|Dark does exist).
That is, even if Dark does exist and does want to hide his existence, his less-than-100%-effective attempts to hide will produce non-zero evidence for his existence and make the probability that Daisy will believe in Dark go up by a non-zero amount.
P(Daisy thinks Dark does exist|Dark does exist) > P(Daisy thinks Dark doesn't exist|Dark does exist), then Dark does a very poor job of causing people to believe he doesn't exist- he would do better by not existing!