in general, when experts are dealing with some big unfathomable future, and it’s a complex system, I tend to discount that. The complexity makes it almost impossible to predict.
Also, if they are using a model, I pretty much discount everything I hear. But if they are just looking at data like a scientist and saying, “When this happens, that happens,” then I’m going to put more stock in it.
--Scott Adams, Interview with Julia Galef, February 10, 2014
Also, if they are using a model, I pretty much discount everything I hear. But if they are just looking at data like a scientist and saying, “When this happens, that happens,” then I’m going to put more stock in it.
What? Scientists do use models. Assuming charitably that he's not mistaken or bullshitting about what scientists do, by “model” he must mean something different -- what?
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are: