ozziegooen comments on Reference Frames for Expected Value - LessWrong

3 Post author: ozziegooen 16 March 2014 07:22PM

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Comment author: jpaulson 16 March 2014 08:05:24PM 1 point [-]

Say the player thought that they were likely win the lottery, that it was a good purchase. This may seem insane to someone familiar with probability and the lottery system, but not everyone is familiar with these things.

I would say this person made a good decision with bad information.

Perhaps we should attempt to stop placing so much emphasis on individualism and just try to do the best we can while not judging others nor other decisions much.

There are lots of times when it's important to judge people e.g. for hiring or performance reviews.

Comment author: ozziegooen 16 March 2014 11:58:00PM 0 points [-]

I would say this person made a good decision with bad information.

I would agree that they made a good decision, good decision being defined as 'decision which optimizes expected value with information about the outcome'. My point was to clarify what 'good decision' meant.

There are lots of times when it's important to judge people e.g. for hiring or performance reviews.

In this case I was attempting to look at a very simple example (the lottery) so we could make moral claims about individuals. This is different from general performance. On that note though, the question of trying to separate what in an individuals' history they were or were not responsible for would be interesting for hiring or performance reviews, but it definitely is a tricky question.

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