Rationality Quotes April 2014

8 Post author: elharo 07 April 2014 05:25PM

Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are:

  • Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
  • Do not quote yourself.
  • Do not quote from Less Wrong itself, HPMoR, Eliezer Yudkowsky, or Robin Hanson. If you'd like to revive an old quote from one of those sources, please do so here.
  • No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

And one new rule:

  • Provide sufficient information (URL, title, date, page number, etc.) to enable a reader to find the place where you read the quote, or its original source if available. Do not quote with only a name.

Comments (656)

Comment author: Armok_GoB 17 May 2014 08:18:34PM 5 points [-]

It wasn’t easier, the ghost explains, you just knew how to do it. Sometimes the easiest method you know is the hardest method there is.

It’s like… to someone who only knows how to dig with a spoon, the notion of digging something as large as a trench will terrify them. All they know are spoons, so as far as they’re concerned, digging is simply difficult. The only way they can imagine it getting any easier is if they change – digging with a spoon until they get stronger, faster, and tougher. And the dangerous people, they’ll actually try this.

Everyone who will ever oppose you in life is a crazy, burly dude with a spoon, and you will never be able to outspoon them. Even the powerful people, they’re just spooning harder and more vigorously than everyone else, like hungry orphan children eating soup. Except the soup is power. I’ll level with you here: I have completely lost track of this analogy.

What I’m saying, giant talking cat, is that everyone is stupid. They attain a narrow grasp of reality and live their life as though there is nothing else. But you, me, creatures with imagination – we aren’t constrained by our experiences. We’re inspired by them. If we have trouble digging with a spoon, we build a shovel. If we’re stopped by a wall, we make a door. And if we can’t make a door, we ask ourselves whether we really need an opening to pass through something solid in the first place.

You point out that you’re not a ghost, and that you do need an opening to pass through solid objects.

No – that’s your mistake, he replies. That’s why you’re still not thinking like a witchhunter. You’re trying to do things right, and that’s wrong. Mysticism means taking a step back – accepting that the very laws of reason and logic you abide by are merely one option of many. It means knowing you only see half the picture in a world where everyone else thinks they see the whole thing. It means having the sheer arrogance to have humility.

That’s why I’m saying you have to think like a witchhunter. You have to be a little wrong to be completely right – to abandon truth in favor of questioning falsehood. If you think something’s the easiest way, you have to know you’re wrong. You have to understand how to stand against the very stance of understanding! You have to know you are inferior; that your knowledge and perceptions will never stand up to the true scope of all possible reality. You have to be a little further from perfect, and embrace that notion.

Source: http://www.prequeladventure.com/2014/05/3391/

Comment author: Visser_One 11 July 2014 04:03:21PM 1 point [-]

thank you for posting this - now I have something new to read!

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 30 April 2014 10:59:34PM *  5 points [-]

I'm tired of coherent nonsense!

-- Tom Stoppard, The Real Thing

Comment author: shminux 30 April 2014 03:08:13PM *  -2 points [-]

Education's purpose is to replace an empty mind with an open one.

Attributed to Malcolm Forbes.

Comment author: Anders_H 30 April 2014 10:05:42PM 4 points [-]

If it weren't for the ban on Robin Hanson quotes, the appropriate response would be too obvious..

That said, I really wish I lived in a world where that quotation was true.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 30 April 2014 11:30:38AM 5 points [-]

Imagine, then, that a man should need to get fire from a neighbour, and, upon finding a big bright fire there, should stay there continually warming himself; just so it is if a man comes to another to share the benefit of a discourse, and does not think it necessary to kindle from it some illumination for himself and some thinking of his own, but, delighting in the discourse, sits enchanted; he gets, as it were, a bright and ruddy glow in the form of opinion imparted to him by what is said, but the mouldiness and darkness of his inner mind he has not dissipated nor banished by the warm glow of philosophy.

Plutarch, "De Auditu" (On Listening), a chapter of his Moralia.

This essay is also the original source of the much-quoted line "The mind is not a pot to be filled, but a fire to be ignited." It is variously attributed, but is a fair distillation of the original passage, which comes directly before the quote above:

For the mind does not require filling like a bottle, but rather, like wood, it only requires kindling to create in it an impulse to think independently and an ardent desire for the truth.

Comment author: shminux 29 April 2014 03:05:31PM 3 points [-]

I reject the concept of "me" as some sort of static thing. Instead I see my moist robot container as something I can manipulate to engineer my mood to the situation. There are times when having more ego is useful. There are times when it is better to be humble. I jack my body chemistry as needed.

Scott Adams on consciously controlling your own moods and feelings

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 28 April 2014 12:13:12PM -2 points [-]

Students have no shortcomings, they have only peculiarities. The job of a teacher is to turn these peculiarities into advantages.

--Israel Gelfand, found here

Comment author: shminux 28 April 2014 05:54:33PM *  2 points [-]

Far it be for me to argue with Gelfand, but, having done some extensive tutoring, I think that sometimes the best way to "turn these peculiarities into advantages" is to direct the student to a more suitable career path. Face it, some people just naturally suck at math. Sure, they can be drilled to do well on high-school math exams, with many times the effort an average student spends on it (that's what Kumon is great at, drills upon more drills with a gradual progress toward System I-level mastery). But this is a waste of time and effort for everyone involved. Their time and effort is more productively spent on creative writing, dancing, debating or whatever else these "peculiarities" hint at. Math is no exception, of course, it gets all the attention as a hard course because of the unreasonably high requirements relative to other subjects.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 28 April 2014 11:28:42PM 0 points [-]

I think you're right about the very general form of the quote. However, it still might be worth at least some teachers' time to look at how peculiarities might be advantages.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 29 April 2014 05:05:37AM 2 points [-]

I'm never sure what to do with these kind of rationality quotes. On the one hand, they are obviously literally false, but on the other hand, they may be pushing against our biases in the right direction.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 29 April 2014 08:11:34AM 1 point [-]

I'd say the obvious thing to do is comment to that effect. So far as karma is concerned, I have no strong opinion.

Comment author: TheAncientGeek 26 April 2014 03:50:34PM *  -2 points [-]

"The most amazing thing about philosophy is that even though no nobody knows to do it, and even though it has never achieved anything, it is still possible to do it really badly"

--Oolon Kaloophid

Comment author: DanArmak 26 April 2014 04:27:59PM *  4 points [-]

eve though no inebkniws hi

Is there missing context, or did a cat philosopher walk across your keyboard? Or is it meant to evoke "writing but really badly"?

Also: strongly disagree that "it has never achieved anything". See also, "successful philosophy stops being philosophy and becomes another science" (not an exact quote).

Comment author: More_Right 26 April 2014 10:20:24AM 2 points [-]

The ultimate result of shielding men from the results of folly is to fill the world with fools.

 — Herbert Spencer (1820-1903), ”State Tampering with Money and Banks“ (1891)
Comment author: DanArmak 26 April 2014 04:32:51PM *  5 points [-]

Or with smart people who profit at the state's expense when it rescues fools from their mistakes. If it's known that folly has no adverse results, people will take more risks.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 29 April 2014 06:33:24AM 2 points [-]

While this is true, it may also be the case that humans in the default state don't take enough risks. Indeed, an inventor or entrepreneur bears all the costs of bankruptcy but captures only some of the benefits of a new business. By classical economic logic, then, risk-taking is a public good, and undersupplied. Which said, admittedly, not all risk-taking is created equal.

Comment author: Lumifer 29 April 2014 02:52:44PM 7 points [-]

Indeed, an inventor or entrepreneur bears all the costs of bankruptcy

That's exactly wrong. Bankruptcy releases the entrepreneur from his obligations and transfers the costs to his creditors.

Not to say that the bankruptcy is painless, but its purpose is precisely to lessen the consequences of failure.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 30 April 2014 01:21:04AM 0 points [-]

The inventor is still bearing the costs of the bankruptcy. The creditors are bearing (some of) the costs of the failure, which is not the same thing.

Comment author: wedrifid 29 April 2014 01:26:52PM *  2 points [-]

Indeed, an inventor or entrepreneur bears all the costs of bankruptcy

This premise doesn't seem true (for all that the conclusion is accurate). Our entire notion of bankruptcy serves the purpose of putting limits on the cost of those risks, transferring burden onto creditors. An example of an alternate cultural construct that come closer to making the entrepreneur bear all the costs of the risk is debt slavery. Others include various forms of formal or informal corporal or capital punishments applied to those that cannot pay their debts.

Comment author: jd_k 29 April 2014 12:57:38PM -1 points [-]

That seems right, and it also seems as though the opposite is sometimes right. If a company knows it can reap the benefits of operations (e.g., of product sales) without bearing the cost of those risks associated with its operations (e.g., of pollution), is this a case of risk-taking being oversupplied?

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 30 April 2014 01:22:09AM 1 point [-]

Pollution does not seem particularly well described by risk or risk-taking; it basically a certainty with industrial operations.

Comment author: jd_k 30 April 2014 07:27:33PM -1 points [-]

In the same way that "product sales" was intended to refer to the result (income), "pollution" was intended to refer to the result (health problems, etc.). While one might think that some result is basically a certainty, the scope and degree of real problems is frequently uncertain. An entrepreneur who weighs potential public health risks does not seem any more difficult to imagine than one who weighs potential bankruptcy risks.

At any rate, pollution is merely an example; you can take any other example you find more suitable.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 26 April 2014 10:16:30AM 6 points [-]

It has come to be accepted practice in introducing new physical quantities that they shall be regarded as defined by the series of measuring operations and calculations of which they are the result. Those who associate with the result a mental picture of some entity disporting itself in a metaphysical realm of existence do so at their own risk; physics can accept no responsibility for this embellishment.

Sir Arthur Eddington, 1939, The Philosophy of Physical Science

Comment author: AshwinV 24 April 2014 10:57:00AM 0 points [-]

"Many who are self-taught far excel the doctors, masters and bachelors of the most renowned universities" Ludwig Von Mises

Comment author: [deleted] 25 April 2014 12:50:23PM *  1 point [-]

Many as an absolute number, or many as a fraction of all self-taught people? I'd agree with the former but not with the latter. IME most self-taught people end up with gross misconceptions because of this.

Comment author: AshwinV 30 April 2014 10:08:46AM 1 point [-]

Absolute number. The point of the statement is not the word "many", but rather the rest of the statement. It's sort of an attempt to break the spell that a large amount of money and a fancy college is required for real learning. But yeah, the reference to the double illusion is spot on and is definitely a kink that has to be ironed out with effort and testing.

Comment author: shminux 24 April 2014 11:54:21PM *  1 point [-]

Oft discussed here and is shown to be empirically wrong in math and physics (if you define "excel" as "make notable discoveries"). Probably also wrong in comp. sci., chem and to a lesser degree in engineering. It might still be true in some nascent areas where one does not need 10 years of intense studying to get to the leading edge.

Comment author: TheAncientGeek 30 April 2014 12:39:22PM 2 points [-]

There is one good example of an unschooled mathematician:Ramanujan. The lack of need for special equipment in maths probably has something to do with it.

Comment author: shminux 30 April 2014 03:30:07PM 1 point [-]

Yes, he is definitely an exception. Unfortunately, I cannot think of anyone else in the last 100 years. Possibly because these days anyone brilliant like that ends up in the system. Which is a good thing, if true.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 30 April 2014 11:34:03AM *  2 points [-]

Oft discussed here and is shown to be empirically wrong in math and physics (if you define "excel" as "make notable discoveries"). Probably also wrong in comp. sci., chem and to a lesser degree in engineering.

That sounds like a list of non-diseased disciplines. Is this by chance? Alternatively, it's the STEM subjects. Same thing?

On the other hand, if "excel" is "do well in life" then, I don't know. But that is the reading that the original context of the quote suggests to me:

The emphasis laid by sociologists upon mass phenomena and their idolization of the common man are an offshoot of the myth that all men are biologically equal. Whatever differences exist between individuals are caused, it is maintained, by postnatal circumstances. If all people equally enjoyed the benefits of a good education, such differences would never appear. The supporters of this doctrine are at a loss to explain the differences among graduates of the same school and the fact that many who are self-taught far excel the doctors, masters, and bachelors of the most renowned universities. They fail to see that education cannot convey to pupils more than the knowledge of their teachers. Education rears disciples, imitators, and routinists, not pioneers of new ideas and creative geniuses. The schools are not nurseries of progress and improvement but conservatories of tradition and unvarying modes of thought. The mark of the creative mind is that it defies a part of what it has learned or, at least, adds something new to it. One utterly misconstrues the feats of the pioneer in reducing them to the instruction he got from his teachers. No matter how efficient school training may be, it would only produce stagnation, orthodoxy, and rigid pedantry if there were no uncommon men pushing forward beyond the wisdom of their tutors.

Also an interesting view of education. One of the ancients said that the mind is not a pot to be filled but a fire to be ignited(1), and nobler teachers see the aim of their profession as the igniting of that fire in their students. However, Mises appears to take the view that this is impossible (he does not limit his criticism of education to any time and place), that teaching cannot be anything but the filling of a pot, and the igniting of the fire can come only from the inner qualities of the individual, incapable of being influenced from outside.

(1) As usually quoted. I've just added the original source of this to the quotes thread.

Comment author: shminux 30 April 2014 03:26:26PM -1 points [-]

They fail to see that education cannot convey to pupils more than the knowledge of their teachers.

One of the more popular ideals of education is summarized in this quote from Malcolm Forbes:

Education's purpose is to replace an empty mind with an open one.

Hmm, probably deserves a top-level comment. Anyway, the reality is that some people are happy with imitations, while others strive for creativity:

The mark of the creative mind is that it defies a part of what it has learned or, at least, adds something new to it.

So good education is beneficial to creative types, as well, since to defy something or to add to something, you have to learn that something first.

No matter how efficient school training may be, it would only produce stagnation, orthodoxy, and rigid pedantry if there were no uncommon men pushing forward beyond the wisdom of their tutors.

A bit harsh, given that many people are at least a little bit creative.

igniting of the fire can come only from the inner qualities of the individual, incapable of being influenced from outside.

Not sure if this is Mises' opinion or what he argues against, but, again, seems a bit harsh. There are always the outliers, but for the majority of people this "igniting" is a combination of nature and nurture.

Comment author: TheAncientGeek 24 April 2014 07:50:43PM 2 points [-]

Some numbers would be useful there.

Comment author: AshwinV 30 April 2014 10:06:48AM 1 point [-]

Numbers would be kind of a nit-pick I would think. The point of the statement is not the word "many", but rather the rest of the statement. It's sort of an attempt to break the spell that a large amount of money and a fancy college is required for real learning.

Comment author: More_Right 24 April 2014 07:04:54PM 0 points [-]

Ayn Rand noticed this too, and was a very big proponent of the idea that colleges indoctrinate as much as they teach. While I believe this is true, and that the indoctrination has a large, mostly negative, effect on people who mindlessly accept self-contradicting ideas into their philosophy and moral self-identity, I believe that it's still good to get a college education in STEM. I believe that STEM majors will benefit more from the useful things they learn, more than they will be hurt or held back by the evil, self-contradictory, things they "learn" (are indoctrinated with).

I'm strongly in agreement with libertarian investment researcher Doug Casey's comments on education. I also agree that the average indoctrinated idiot or 'pseudo-intellectual" is more likely to have a college degree than not. Unfortunately, these conformity-reinforcing system nodes then drag down entire networks that are populated by conformists to "lowest-common-denominator" pseudo-philosophical thinking. This constitutes uncritically accepted and regurgitated memes reproduced by political sophistry.

Of course, I think that people who totally "self-start" have little need for most courses in most universities, but a big need for specific courses in specific narrow subject areas. Khan Academy and other MOOCs are now eliminating even that necessity. Generally, this argument is that "It's a young man's world." This will get truer and truer, until the point where the initial learning curve once again becomes a barrier to achievement beyond what well-educated "ultra-intelligences" know, and the experience and wisdom (advanced survival and optimization skills) they have. I believe that even long past the singularity, there will be a need for direct learning from biology, ecosystems, and other incredibly complex phenomena. Ideally, there will be a "core skill set" that all human+ sentiences have, at that time, but there will still be specialization for project-oriented work, due to specifics of a complex situation.

For the foreseeable future, the world will likely become a more and more dangerous place, until either the human race is efficiently rubbed out by military AGI (and we all find out what it's like to be on the receiving end of systemic oppression, such as being a Jew in Hitler's Germany, or a Native American at Wounded Knee), or there becomes a strong self-regulating marketplace, post-enlightenment civilization that contains many "enlightened" "ultraintelligent machines" that all decentralize power from one another and their sub-systems.

I'm interested to find out if those machines will have memorized "Human Action" or whether they will simply directly appeal to massive data sets, gleaned directly from nature. (Or, more likely, both.)

One aspect of the problem now is that the government encourages a lot of people who should not go to college to go to college, skewing the numbers against the value of legitimate education. Some people have college degrees that mean nothing, a few people have college degrees that are worth every penny. Also, the licensed practice of medicine is a perverse shadow of "jumping through regulatory hoops" that has little or nothing to do with the pure, free-market "instantly evolving marketplaces at computation-driven innovation speeds" practice of medicine.

To form a full pattern of the incentives that govern U.S. college education, and social expectations that cause people to choose various majors, and to determine the skill levels associated with those majors, is a very complex thing. The pattern recognition skills inherent in the average human intelligence probably prohibit a very useful emergent pattern from being generated. The pattern would likely be some small sub-aspect of college education, and even then, human brains wouldn't do a very good job of seeing the dominant aspects of the pattern, and analyzing them intelligently.

I'll leave that to I.J. Good's "ultraintelligent machines." Also, I've always been far more of a fan of Hayek, but haven't read everything that both of them have written, so I am reserving final hierarchical placement judgment until then.

Bryan Caplan, Norbert Weiner, Kevin Warwick, Kevin Kelly, Peter Voss in his latest video interview, and Ray Kurzweil have important ideas that enhance the ideas of Hayek, but Hayek and Mises got things mostly right.

Great to see the quote here. Certainly, coercively-funded individuals whose bars of acceptance are very low are the dominant institutions now whose days are numbered by the rise of cheaper, better alternatives. However, if the bar is raised on what constitutes "renowned universities," Mises' statement becomes less true, but only for STEM courses, of which doctors and other licensed professionals are often not participants. Learning how to game a licensing system doesn't mean you have the best skills the market will support, and it means you're of low enough intelligence to be willing to participate in the suppression of your competition.

Comment author: [deleted] 24 April 2014 11:04:57PM *  6 points [-]

You certainly wrote quite a lot of ideological mish-mash to dodge the simplest possible explanation: a, if not the, primary function of elite education (as compared to non-elite education) is to filter out an arbitrary caste of individuals capable of optimizing their way through arbitrarily difficult trials and imbue that caste with elite status. The precise content of the trials doesn't really matter (hence the existence of both Yale and MIT), as long as they're sufficiently difficult to ensure that few pass.

I'm writing from an elite engineering university, and as far as I can tell, this is more-or-less our tacitly admitted pedagogical method: some students will survive the teaching process, and they will retroactively be declared superior. The question of whether we even should optimize our pedagogy to maximize the conveyance of information from professor to student plays no part whatsoever in our curriculum.

Comment author: More_Right 26 April 2014 09:13:28AM 2 points [-]

If you're right (and you may well be), then I view that as a sad commentary on the state of human education, and I view tech-assisted self-education as a way of optimizing that inherently wasteful "hazing" system you describe. I think it's likely that what you say is true for some high percentage of classes, but untrue for a very small minority of highly-valuable classes.

Also, the university atmosphere is good for social networking, which is one of the primary values of going to MIT or Yale.

Comment author: bramflakes 24 April 2014 02:41:00PM 2 points [-]

Correlation/causation? Selection effects?

Comment author: Anders_H 24 April 2014 03:20:34PM 11 points [-]

Neither. Obviously, the average excellence of "doctors, masters and bachelors" of the most renowned universities is higher than the average excellence of people who are self-taught. Nobody suggests that being self-taught correlates positively with excellence.

The quotation is still undoubtedly true, because there are many more individuals who are self-taught than individuals who have these credentials. It is also plausible that the variance in excellence among the self-taught is much higher. Therefore, it is trivial to identify self-taught individuals who are more knowledgeable than most highly credentialed university graduates.

In fact, as a doctoral student in applied causal inference at a fairly renowned university, I can identify several self-taught Less Wrong community members who understand causality theory better than I do.

Comment author: Benito 22 April 2014 09:30:04PM 4 points [-]

Whilst arguing that uncertainty is best measured using numbers and probabilities:

We want to measure uncertainties in order to combine them. A politician said that he preferred adverbs to numbers. Unfortunately it is difficult to combine adverbs.

  • Dennis V. Lindley, Understanding Uncertainty
Comment author: CronoDAS 24 April 2014 07:46:06AM *  1 point [-]

[missing the point]
On the contrary, combining adverbs is easy. If X is very uncertain, and Y is very uncertain, then X - Y is very, very uncertain. [/missing the point]

^_^

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 29 April 2014 06:37:17AM -1 points [-]

Why isn't it "very, very uncertain, uncertain"? Anyway, 'very' is an adjective. 'Verily' is the adverb.

Comment author: DanArmak 26 April 2014 04:38:24PM 0 points [-]

But without the math to prove it, you may wrongly conclude that the uncertainties cancel out and X - Y is quite certain indeed.

Comment author: roryokane 18 April 2014 01:26:11AM *  20 points [-]

“If only there were irrational people somewhere, insidiously believing stupid things, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and mock them. But the line dividing rationality and irrationality cuts through the mind of every human being. And who is willing to mock a piece of his own mind?”

(With apologies to Solzhenitsyn).

– Said Achmiz, in a comment on Slate Star Codex’s post “The Cowpox of Doubt”

Comment author: Nornagest 18 April 2014 04:41:16PM -2 points [-]

I'm not sure that's quite in the spirit of the thread rules, what with how closely tied Slate Star Codex is to the LW community. But it's a good enough abuse of Solzhenitsyn that I'm upvoting it anyway.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 19 April 2014 04:01:32AM 3 points [-]

Am I the only one who finds it annoying how the "do not quote LW rule" has been creeping into ever broader interpretations?

Comment author: somnicule 19 April 2014 04:57:08AM 1 point [-]

Hmm. It's an interesting point.

I'm not entirely clear on the purpose of the rule. It makes sense to not just increase the redundancy of anything people have said in other threads that have already got a lot of attention, but I'm sure there's plenty of interesting stuff buried deep in comment threads that haven't got much light and might be worth sharing. Conversely, there will be some quotes here from outside LW/OB that a high proportion of readers have seen already.

So it's definitely something that made sense when the LW/OB community was smaller and there wasn't much good stuff that people weren't seeing anyway, but perhaps it's time to relax the rule a little bit, replace it with the substance.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 19 April 2014 08:10:58AM 4 points [-]

I believe the purpose was to bring material to LW from outside rather than quoting each other (and especially, quoting Eliezer), to avoid an echo chamber effect. There was once an experimental LW Quotes Thread, but the experiment has not been repeated.

I don't have a strong view about whether LW regulars posting on other LW regulars' blogs should be excluded from the quotes threads, but I incline against the practice. It was a good quote though.

Comment author: lmm 23 April 2014 11:00:34PM 1 point [-]

Which side do you incline against?

Comment author: RichardKennaway 24 April 2014 12:18:49PM 0 points [-]

Which side do you incline against?

Against having such quotes.

Comment author: Mark_Neznansky 19 April 2014 05:13:41AM 0 points [-]

I can't comment on the size (so LW is growing?), but I have a tingling memory that long time ago (several years back) people did post LW quotes. Since LW doesn't exist that long I suppose it was the case in its inception. I can't say for sure, but actually Eugine's post seems to suggest that as well; otherwise it wouldn't have been "creeping into". Either way, should be easy to check. I do, too, think it is worthwhile to put LW quotes. I remember (I do!) reading those and being led to read the original articles whence they came.

Comment author: tut 19 April 2014 02:41:55PM 0 points [-]

There was a separate thread for that for a while.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 19 April 2014 06:59:39AM 2 points [-]

I can't comment on the size (so LW is growing?), but I have a tingling memory that long time ago (several years back) people did post LW quotes.

I don't think LW/OB quotes were ever allowed, but MoR quotes used to be.

Comment author: gwern 02 May 2014 11:28:58PM 0 points [-]

I think we may have cracked down on Hanson quotes too.

Comment author: Vaniver 18 April 2014 04:04:42PM 3 points [-]

The original quotation on LW.

Comment author: Dagon 17 April 2014 03:39:25PM 12 points [-]

But understanding human limitations does not mean we can overcome them. It only means we can’t pretend they don’t exist. It should point us toward humility, not hubris.

Yuval Levin in the National Review

Comment author: DanArmak 19 April 2014 07:13:12PM 1 point [-]

To the extent that we can overcome our current limits, we have to understand them first. We should beware false humility and rationalization of existing limits (e.g. deathism).

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 16 April 2014 10:32:50PM 6 points [-]

Our recent research into team behavior [...] reveals an interesting paradox: Although teams that are large, virtual, diverse, and composed of highly educated specialists are increasingly crucial with challenging projects, those same four characteristics make it hard for teams to get anything done. To put it another way, the qualities required for success are the same qualities that undermine success. Members of complex teams are less likely—absent other influences—to share knowledge freely, to learn from one another, to shift workloads flexibly to break up unexpected bottlenecks, to help one another complete jobs and meet deadlines, and to share resources—in other words, to collaborate. They are less likely to say that they “sink or swim” together, want one another to succeed, or view their goals as compatible.

Eight Ways to Build Collaborative Teams by Lynda Gratton and Tamara J. Erickson

This seems applicable as the LessWrong community is "large, virtual, diverse, and composed of highly educated specialists" and the community wants to solve challenging projects.

Comment author: hydkyll 26 April 2014 12:39:55AM 0 points [-]

Is the paper worth reading in that it offers solutions to this problem?

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 26 April 2014 01:52:10AM *  1 point [-]

These are the key points from page 7:

*1. Investing in signature relationship practices. Executives can encourage collaborative behavior by making highly visible investments—in facilities with open floor plans to foster communication, for example—that demonstrate their commitmen t to collaboration.

I have seen failure at this to lead to a decline in participation esp. by key contributors who didn't see their effort honored or supported.

For LW this might mean key contributors supporting the creation or operation of benefits like the new business networking and user page initiaitive or in general the operation of the site.

*2. Modeling collaborative behavior. At companies where the senior executives demonstrate highly collaborative behavior themselves, teams collaborate well.

On LW the active members already act as role models.

*3. Creating a “gift culture.” Mentoring and coaching—especially on an informal basis—help people build the networks they need to work across corporate boundaries.

I can only guess that that is what CFAR does.

*4. Ensuring the requisite skills. Human resources departments that teach employees how to build relationships, communicate well, and resolve conflicts creatively can have a major impact on team collaboration.

Building real-life relationships is done by meetups. I see the meetup resources as an effort to support this. But maybe someone could actively contact the meetup organizers and look whether there is potential for improvement.

*5. Supporting a strong sense of community. When people feel a sense of community, they are more comfortable reaching out to others and more likely to share knowledge.

I felt this at the Berlin event.

*6. Assigning team leaders that are both task- and relationship-oriented. The debate has traditionally focused on whether a task or a relationship orientation creates better leadership, but in fact both are key to successfully leading a team. Typically, leaning more heavily on a task orientation at the outset of a project and shifting toward a relationship orientation once the work is in full swing works best.

I can't quickly evaulate this. Ideas?

*7. Building on heritage relationships. When too many team members are strangers, people may be reluctant to share knowledge. The best practice is to put at least a few people who know one another on the team.

This follows from LW being a community and no business.

*8. Understanding role clarity and task ambiguity. Cooperation increases when the roles of individual team members are sharply defined yet the team is given latitude on how to achieve the task.

There was a post and discussion on roles but I can't find it. Maybe this needs more structure.

Comment author: cousin_it 16 April 2014 10:22:07AM 21 points [-]

Being wrong about something feels exactly the same as being right about something.

-- many different people, most recently user chipaca on HN

Comment author: brazil84 19 April 2014 08:15:10PM 2 points [-]

Being wrong about something feels exactly the same as being right about something.

It occurs to me that "being wrong" can be divided into two subcategories -- before and after you start seeing evidence or arguments which undermine your position.

With practice, the feeling of being right and seeing confirming information can be distinguished from the feeling of being wrong and seeing undermining information. Unfortunately, the latter feeling is very uncomfortable and it is always tempting look for ways to lessen it.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 17 April 2014 12:19:24AM *  3 points [-]

Hmm, what about such things as feeling that you need to defend the truth from criticism rather than find a way to explain it better? Or nagging doubts that you're ignoring, or a feeling that your opponents are acting the way they are because they're stupid or evil? Or wanting to censor someone else's speech? I take all these things as alarm signals.

A communist friend of mine once said, after I'd nailed her into a corner in a political argument about appropriate rates of pay during a fireman's strike, "Well under socialism there wouldn't be as many fires.". I reckon that there must be a feeling associated with that sort of thing.

Comment author: DanArmak 19 April 2014 07:21:58PM *  3 points [-]

Defending the truth from criticism also feels exactly the same as defending what you wrongly think is the truth from criticism.

The feelings you list correspond to very common ways people behave. So they're very weak evidence that you're wrong about something. Unless you're a trained rationalist who very rarely has these feelings / behaviors.

Most people first acquire a belief - whether by epistomologically legitimate ways or not - and then proceed to defend it, ignore contrary evidence and feel opponents to be stupid, because that's just the way most people deal with beliefs that are important to them.

Comment author: rule_and_line 16 April 2014 10:04:01PM *  3 points [-]

This is the most forceful version I've seen (assumed it had been posted before, discovered it probably hasn't, won't start a new thread since it's too similar):

But by definition, there can’t be any particular feeling associated with simply being wrong. Indeed, the whole reason it’s possible to be wrong is that, while it is happening, you are oblivious to it. When you are simply going about your business in a state you will later decide was delusional, you have no idea of it whatsoever. You are like the coyote in the Road Runner cartoons, after he has gone off the cliff but before he has looked down. Literally in his case and figuratively in yours, you are already in trouble when you feel like you’re still on solid ground. So I should revise myself: it does feel like something to be wrong. It feels like being right.

Kathryn Schulz, Being Wrong

But I'm not comfortable endorsing either of these quotes without a comment.

chipaca's quote (and friends) suggest to me that

  • my "being wrong" and "being right" are complementary hypotheses, and
  • my subjective feelings are not evidence either way.

Schulz's quote (and book) suggest to me that

  • my "being wrong" is broadly and overwhelmingly true (my map is not the territory), and
  • my subjective feeling of being right is in fact evidence that I am very wrong.

I'd prefer to emphasize that "You are already in trouble when you feel like you’re still on solid ground," or said another way:

Becoming less wrong feels different from the experience of going about my business in a state that I will later decide was delusional.

Comment author: gwern 02 May 2014 11:20:22PM 1 point [-]

Schulz hasn't been quoted here before, but you might've seen my use of that quote on http://www.gwern.net/Mistakes to which I will add a quote of Wittgenstein making the same quote but much more compressed and concisely:

One can mistrust one's own senses, but not one's own belief. If there were a verb meaning "to believe falsely", it would not have any [meaningful] first person, present indicative.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 15 April 2014 11:43:31PM 14 points [-]

Encoded in the large, highly evolved sensory and motor portions of the human brain is a billion years of experience about the nature of the world and how to survive in it. The deliberate process we call reasoning is, I believe, the thinnest veneer of human thought, effective only because it is supported by this much older and much more powerful, though usually unconscious, sensorimotor knowledge. We are all prodigious olympians in perceptual and motor areas, so good that we make the difficult look easy. Abstract thought, though, is a new trick, perhaps less than 100 thousand years old. We have not yet mastered it. It is not all that intrinsically difficult; it just seems so when we do it.

Hans Moravec, Wikipedia/Moravec's Paradox

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 15 April 2014 11:44:57PM 10 points [-]

The main lesson of thirty-five years of AI research is that the hard problems are easy and the easy problems are hard. The mental abilities of a four-year-old that we take for granted – recognizing a face, lifting a pencil, walking across a room, answering a question – in fact solve some of the hardest engineering problems ever conceived... As the new generation of intelligent devices appears, it will be the stock analysts and petrochemical engineers and parole board members who are in danger of being replaced by machines. The gardeners, receptionists, and cooks are secure in their jobs for decades to come.

Stephen Pinker, Wikipedia/Moravec's Paradox

Comment author: roystgnr 02 May 2014 03:24:14PM 2 points [-]

What was the ratio of phone time spent talking to human vs computer receptionists when Pinker published this quote in 2007? For that matter, how much non-phone time was being spent using a website to perform a transaction that would have previously required interaction with a human receptionist?

Pinker understood AI correctly (it's still way too hard to handle arbitrary interactions with customers), yet he failed to predict the present, much less the future, because he misunderstood the economics. Most interactions with customers are very non-arbitrary. If 10% need human intervention, then you put a human in the loop after the other 90% have been taken care of by much-cheaper software.

If you were to say "a machine can't do everything a horse can do", you'd be right, even today, but that isn't a refutation of the effect of automation on the economic prospects of equine labor.

Comment author: More_Right 26 April 2014 09:35:22AM 1 point [-]

The gardeners, receptionists, and cooks are secure in their jobs for decades to come.

Except that in exponentially-increasing computation-technology-driven timelines, decades are compressed into minutes after the knee of the exponential. The extra time a good cook has, isn't long.

Let's hope that we're not still paying rent then, or we might find ourselves homeless.

Comment author: wadavis 15 April 2014 11:08:26PM *  8 points [-]

'There is of course the question of public safety,' said Vetinari. 'Did I hear you say earlier you have blown up... "one or three" I think was the phrase?"

'I made those explode a-purpose, to see exactly how it 'appened. That's the way to get knowledge, you see, sir.'

Raising Steam, Terry Pratchett

Regarding the first steam engine in Pratchett's fictional world.

Comment author: gwern 02 May 2014 11:15:06PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: Baughn 29 April 2014 06:13:54PM *  0 points [-]

This quote made me read the book, and I wasn't disappointed.

The overall arc of the Discworld is stunning; in retrospect, it recapitulates the rise of civilization well. Raising Steam is perhaps not the last book, but it wouldn't be a bad place to stop if it were.

Comment author: Ixiel 14 April 2014 03:37:41PM 11 points [-]

If the best minds were in charge of designing a bridge, I would expect the bridge to hold up well even in a storm. If the best minds were in charge of designing an airplane, I would expect it to fly reliably. But if the best minds were in charge of something no one really knows how to do, I would be ready for a failure, albeit a failure with superb academic credentials.

Terry Coxon

Comment author: wadavis 15 April 2014 11:11:24PM 0 points [-]

All I'm getting out of this is that the quoted fails to understand the ability of great minds. Is there a context I'm missing?

Comment author: Ixiel 16 April 2014 11:53:35AM *  6 points [-]

Being ready for failure is not quite the same thing as considering success impossible.

The context is that economics is in shall we say an earlier stage of development than engineering, so we should be more conscious of the risk of economic tinkering failing than we need be of whether our bridge or plane falls apart underneath us.

Comment author: Ian_S 11 April 2014 05:31:05PM *  1 point [-]

"Did many people die?"

"Three thousand four hundred and ninety-two."

"A small proportion."

"It is always one hundred percent for the individual concerned."

"Still..."

"No, no still."

-Ian Banks, Look to Windward

Comment author: shminux 11 April 2014 10:34:13PM 11 points [-]

Does this quote have any rationalist content beyond the usual anti-deathism applause light?

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 April 2014 11:49:48PM 8 points [-]

And here I looked at that and saw a negative example of how not to do "shut up and multiply", though I suppose it could also be a warning about scope insensitivity / psychophysical numbing if the risk at hand required an absolute payment to stave off, rather than a per-capita payment, since in the former case only absolute numbers matter, and in the latter case per capita risks matter.

Comment author: Ian_S 14 April 2014 02:18:01PM 10 points [-]

Maybe I need to include more context. This conversation occurs after the multiplication was done. This was discussing the aftermath, which had been minimized as much as the minds in question could manage. I took it to mean that, once you have made the best decision you can, there is no guarantee that you will be happy with the outcome, just that it would likely have been worse had you made any other decision.

Comment author: gwern 02 May 2014 11:12:44PM 3 points [-]

I think the inability to include that context and make your interpretation clear means that it's a bad rationality quote because it's far too easily taken a 'consequentialism boo!' quote.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 10 April 2014 12:13:53PM 0 points [-]

The most significant moment in the course of intellectual development, which gives birth to the purely human forms of practical and abstract intelligence, occurs when speech and practical activity, two previously completely independent lines of development, converge.

1930 Lev Vygotsky in Mind and Society (transcribed by Andy Blunden and Nate Schmolze)

Online: http://www.cles.mlc.edu.tw/~cerntcu/099-curriculum/Edu_Psy/EP_03_New.pdf

Comment author: RichardKennaway 10 April 2014 12:30:02PM 0 points [-]

HitaRQ? There have been many theories of child development. What singles this one out as noteworthy?

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 10 April 2014 12:50:57PM 0 points [-]

Because it is a key insight (stated in 1930) into the development of practical intelligence, i.e. intelligence applicable to general and real life problems, which the AI community has arrived at only in the late 1980s

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embodied_cognition#History_of_AI

Comment author: somnicule 09 April 2014 11:13:15AM 20 points [-]

“Even if it's not your fault, it's your responsibility.”

Comment author: Brillyant 15 April 2014 09:55:38PM 7 points [-]

This is a great tagline for the doctrine of Original Sin.

Comment author: DanArmak 19 April 2014 07:36:03PM 3 points [-]

"Even if it's not your fault, it's your punishment."

Comment author: lukeprog 09 April 2014 02:02:46AM 12 points [-]

There is nothing that can be said by mathematical symbols and relations which cannot also be said by words. The converse, however, is false. Much that can be and is said by words cannot be put into equations — because it is nonsense.

Clifford Truesdell

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 29 April 2014 06:46:47AM 1 point [-]

I don't see why an equation can't be nonsensical. Perhaps the nonsense is easier to spot when expressed in symbols, or then again perhaps not.

Comment author: lmm 05 May 2014 05:59:17PM 0 points [-]

Equations can be nonsensical, but it's harder to write a nonsense equation than a nonsense sentence (like the old joke: it's easy to lie with statistics, but it's easier to lie without them). In a way this was the unpleasant surprise of Godel's incompleteness theorem; before that we'd hoped that every well-formed proposition was true or false and could be proven to be so.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 15 April 2014 11:53:36PM 4 points [-]

This is beautiful: I can't turn it into equations. Does that refute it or support it?

Comment author: [deleted] 25 April 2014 08:54:43PM *  -1 points [-]

There are symbol-juxtapositions which are syntactically or semantically disconnected from any model set in ZFC. There are no sets in ZFC which are similarly separated from statements in a suitable language.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 26 April 2014 10:11:35AM 0 points [-]

This looks like the sort of thing that I usually find enlightening, but I don't understand it. Could you repeat it in baby-speak?

Comment author: [deleted] 03 May 2014 11:51:52AM 1 point [-]

You can write nonsense formulas on paper which don't correspond to theorems about anything. You can't construct nonsense universes which aren't described by theorems anywhere.

Words only mean anything because we interpret them to correspond to the real world. In the absence of words, the real world continues existing.

Comment author: The_Duck 19 April 2014 06:53:00AM 1 point [-]

I can't turn it into equations.

Did you try? Each sentence in the quote could easily be expressed in some formal system like predicate calculus or something.

Comment author: lionhearted 08 April 2014 11:03:13PM 5 points [-]

On thrust work, drag work, and why creative work is perpetually frustrating --

"Each individual creative episode is unsustainable by its very nature. As a given episode accelerates, surpassing the sustainable long term trajectory, the thrust engine overwhelms the available supporting capabilities. ... Just as momentum build to truly exciting levels…some new limitation appears squelching that momentum. ...The problem is that you outran your supporting capabilities and that deficit became a source of drag. Perhaps you didn’t have systems in place to capture leads. Perhaps you lacked the bandwidth necessary to follow up on all the new opportunities. Perhaps, due to lack of experience, you pursued the wrong opportunities. Perhaps you just didn’t know what to do next – you outran your existing knowledge base. In one way or another new varieties of drag emerge. The accelerating curve you had been riding becomes unsustainable and you find yourself mired in the slow build of the next episode. This is what we experience as anti-climax and temporary stagnation." -- Greg Raider, from his essay "A Pilgrimage Through Stagnation and Acceleration"

The whole piece is worth reading, it's really good -- http://onthespiral.com/pilgrimage-through-stagnation-acceleration

Hat tip to Zach Obront for linking me to it originally.

Comment author: wisnij 07 April 2014 08:40:29PM 3 points [-]

Beware of bugs in the above code; I have only proved it correct, not tried it.

Donald Knuth on the difference between theory and practice.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 08 April 2014 08:32:00AM 3 points [-]
Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 05 April 2014 06:50:49AM *  15 points [-]

...the utility of a thought experiment is inversely proportional to the size of its departure from reality.

-- Daniel Dennett, Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 16 April 2014 12:02:42AM 6 points [-]

Are we sure about this? Einstein's idea of riding along with a light beam was super-useful and physically impossible in principle. Whereas the experiment I just thought of where I pour my cup of tea on my trousers I can almost not be bothered to do.

Comment author: Stabilizer 25 April 2014 09:56:38PM 2 points [-]

This is funny. Until I read your comment, I was misreading the original quote; I didn't notice the "inversely" part. I was implicitly thinking that the quote was claiming that the farther the thought experiment is from reality, the more useful it is. I guess my physicist biases are showing.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 26 April 2014 12:22:07PM 3 points [-]

I think that's my point! It sounds just as profound without the 'inversely'.

Comment author: Vulture 16 April 2014 08:09:29PM *  7 points [-]

Ceteris paribus, then. On average, a thought experiment along the lines of "what if I poured this stuff on my trousers" is of much more practical use and tells you much more about reality than a thought experiment along the lines of "what if I could ride around on [intangible thing]". The most realistic thought experiments are the ones we do all the time, often without thinking, and which help us decide, for example, not to balance that cup of tea right on the edge of the table. Meanwhile, only very clever scientists and philosophers with lots of training can wring anything useful out of really far-out "what if I rode on a beam of light"-type thought experiments, and even they screw it up all the time and are generally well-advised not to base a conclusion solely on such a thought experiment. As I understand it, Einstein's successful use of gedankenexperiments to come up with good new ideas is generally considered evidence of his exceptional cleverness.

(note: I know very little about this topic and may be playing very fast and loose. I think the main idea is sensible, though)

Comment author: [deleted] 05 April 2014 05:45:29AM 36 points [-]

Philosophers often behave like little children who scribble some marks on a piece of paper at random and then ask the grown-up "What's that?"- It happened like this: the grown-up had drawn pictures for the child several times and said "this is a man," "this is a house," etc. And then the child makes some marks too and asks: what's this then?

  • Wittgenstein, Culture and Value
Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 05 April 2014 12:49:12AM 10 points [-]

I assume that the reader is familiar with the idea of extrasensory perception, and the meaning of the four items of it, viz., telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition and psychokinesis. These disturbing phenomena seem to deny all our usual scientific ideas. How we should like to discredit them! Unfortunately the statistical evidence, at least for telepathy, is overwhelming.

Alan Turing (from "Computing Machinery and Intelligence")

Comment author: gwern 02 May 2014 11:09:30PM 4 points [-]

Particularly relevant a quote given Yvain's recent http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/28/the-control-group-is-out-of-control/

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 03 May 2014 03:55:55PM 0 points [-]

That is an exceedingly interesting article. Thanks for the link.

Comment author: DanArmak 06 April 2014 04:47:42PM 2 points [-]

Can you provide some context? I don't understand: the claim that the evidence for telepathy is very strong is surely wrong, so is this sarcasm? A wordplay?

Comment author: fubarobfusco 07 April 2014 07:19:24AM 4 points [-]

Turing's 1950 paper asks, "Can machines think?"

After introducing the Turing Test as a possible way to answer the question (in, he expects, the positive), he presents nine possible objections, and explains why he thinks each either doesn't apply or can be worked around. These objections deal with such topics as souls, Gödel's theorem, consciousness, and so on. Psychic powers are the last of these possible objections: if an interrogator can read the mind of a human, they can identify a human; if they can psychokinetically control the output of a computer, they can manipulate it.

From the context, it does seem that Turing gives some credence to the existence of psychic powers. This doesn't seem all that surprising for a British government mathematician in 1950. This was the era after the Rhines' apparently positive telepathy research — and well before major organized debunking of parapsychology as a pseudoscience (which started in the '70s with Randi and CSICOP). Governments including the US, UK, and USSR were putting actual money into ESP research.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 07 April 2014 03:02:43PM 3 points [-]

Yes, but also remember that Turing's English, shy, and from King's College, home of a certain archness and dry wit. I think he's taking the piss, but the very ambiguity of it was why it appealed as a rationality quote. He's facing the evidence squarely, declaring his biases, taking the objection seriously, and yet there's still a profound feeling that he's defying the data. Or maybe not. Maybe I just read it that way because I don't buy telepathy.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 19 April 2014 10:43:41AM 4 points [-]

I think Turing's willingness to take all comers seriously is something to emulate.

Comment author: wuncidunci 08 April 2014 01:50:24PM *  8 points [-]

Hodges claims that Turing at least had some interest in telepathy and prophesies:

These disturbing phenomena seem to deny all our usual scientific ideas. How we should like to discredit them! Unfortunately the statistical evidence, at least for telepathy, is overwhelming. It is very difficult to rearrange one’s ideas so as to fit these new facts in. Once one has accepted them it does not seem a very big step to believe in ghosts and bogies. The idea that our bodies move simply according to the known laws of physics, together with some others not yet discovered but somewhat similar, would be the first to go.

Readers might well have wondered whether he[Turing] really believed the evidence to be ‘overwhelming’, or whether this was a rather arch joke. In fact he was certainly impressed at the time by J .B. Rhine’s claims to have experimental proof of extra-sensory perception. It might have reflected his interest in dreams and prophecies and coincidences, but certainly was a case where for him, open-mindedness had to come before anything else; what was so had to come before what it was convenient to think. On the other hand, he could not make light, as less well-informed people could, of the inconsistency of these ideas with the principles of causality embodied in the existing ‘laws of physics’, and so well attested by experiment.

Alan Turing: The Enigma (Chapter 7)

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 04 April 2014 11:24:09PM *  -2 points [-]

Eadem Mutata Resurgo

[the] Same, [but] Changed, I [shall] Rise

On the tombstone of Jacob Bernoulli.

Comment author: gjm 16 April 2014 10:26:00PM 4 points [-]

Some context may be useful. (Sadly, the people who made the tombstone screwed up[1] and put the wrong sort of spiral on it.)

[1] I suppose this is a rather clever pun, but only by coincidence.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 17 April 2014 12:36:11AM 1 point [-]

Voted up for the pun! I liked it for the cryonics reference. Like in Lovecraft.

Comment author: aarongertler 04 April 2014 05:55:35PM *  26 points [-]

"Throughout the day, Stargirl had been dropping money. She was the Johnny Appleseed of loose change: a penny here, a nickel there. Tossed to the sidewalk, laid on a shelf or bench. Even quarters.

"I hate change," she said. "It's so . . . jangly."

"Do you realize how much you must throw away in a year?" I said.

"Did you ever see a little kid's face when he spots a penny on a sidewalk?”

Jerry Spinelli, Stargirl

Comment author: aarongertler 04 April 2014 05:56:29PM 17 points [-]

So as to keep the quote on its own, my commentary:

This passage (read at around age 10) may have been my first exposure to an EA mindset, and I think that "things you don't value much anymore can still provide great utility for other people" is a powerful lesson in general.

Comment author: Nomad 04 April 2014 03:46:08PM 1 point [-]

Teenage stupidity is magical. At that age, you're so dumb that you may think you know you're dumb, but you're actually so ignorant (and arrogant) that you think you're smart and wise for knowing you're dumb. In reality, you're just dumb. Take away the recursive loop of delusion and any sense of how wise you are even though you're so young, and the truth is all that remains: You Are Dumb.

Cracked

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 10 April 2014 05:05:42PM 7 points [-]

Finding out that you're stupid (or ignorant) is an important start. I don't recommend insulting people because they're started rather than continued the job, especially if they're young.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 April 2014 02:17:35PM *  16 points [-]

I don't see how that's any different from all the other age groups ;-).

Comment author: ahel 08 April 2014 09:43:43AM 0 points [-]

We are out of it, so we can bitch about ;-).

Comment author: TheAncientGeek 08 April 2014 09:49:30AM 5 points [-]

Being able to patronise the young is the only advantage of age

Comment author: RichardKennaway 08 April 2014 02:40:36PM 9 points [-]

Being able to patronise the young is the only advantage of age

Failing health is the only disadvantage of age. In every other way, the years just make things better.

Comment author: Armok_GoB 09 April 2014 07:45:35PM -1 points [-]

Other people and governments knowing about it and changing how rules and expectations apply are pretty darn big disadvantages for both young, old, and in between, in different situations and ways.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 09 April 2014 08:54:28PM 2 points [-]

This is too abstract for me to have any idea what you're talking about.

Comment author: arundelo 04 April 2014 02:13:10PM 24 points [-]

Specifically, [these recent books that deal with parallel universes] argue that if some scientific theory X has enough experimental support for us to take it seriously, then we must take seriously also all its predictions Y, even if these predictions are themselves untestable (involving parallel universes, for example).

As a warm-up example, let's consider Einstein's theory of General Relativity. It's widely considered a scientific theory worthy of taking seriously, because it has made countless correct predictions -- from the gravitational bending of light to the time dilation measured by our GPS phones. This means that we must also take seriously its prediction for what happens inside black holes, even though this is something we can never observe and report on in Scientific American. If someone doesn't like these black hole predictions, they can't simply opt out of them and dismiss them as unscientific: instead, they need to come up with a different mathematical theory that matches every single successful prediction that general relativity has made -- yet doesn't give the disagreeable black hole predictions.

-- Max Tegmark, Scientific American guest blog, 2014-02-04

Comment author: [deleted] 13 April 2014 08:08:24AM *  0 points [-]

Well... Einstein didn't need a complete theory of quantum electrodynamics to predict the coefficients of spontaneous emission from thermodynamical arguments; I don't think Bekenstein and Hawking need a complete theory of quantum gravity to make predictions other than those of classical GR either.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 April 2014 01:54:26PM 5 points [-]

I would think the first objection to that line of reasoning would be that we know General Relativity is an incomplete theory of reality and expect to find something that supersedes it and gives better answers regarding black holes.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 16 April 2014 12:14:20AM 0 points [-]

Better answers, yes, but I'd expect the new answers to be at least quite like the GR answers. I mean, probably no singularities in the real theory, but lots of time-warping and space-whirling, surely. He only says 'take seriously', not 'swallow whole including the self-contradictory bits'.

Comment author: Ixiel 04 April 2014 11:14:37AM *  35 points [-]

Slartibartfast: Perhaps I'm old and tired, but I think that the chances of finding out what's actually going on are so absurdly remote that the only thing to do is to say, "Hang the sense of it," and keep yourself busy. I'd much rather be happy than right any day.

Arthur Dent: And are you?

Slartibartfast: Well... no. That's where it all falls down, of course.

Douglas Adams, Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Comment author: anandjeyahar 10 April 2014 06:07:26PM 2 points [-]

Thanks for this one.. It's been some time since I re-read Douglas Adams , and had forgotten how good he can be. It makes so much sense reading this right after reading "Bind yourself to Reality". Had good long guffaw out of this one .:-)

Comment author: dspeyer 04 April 2014 02:26:23AM 44 points [-]

"It is one thing for you to say, ‘Let the world burn.' It is another to say, ‘Let Molly burn.' The difference is all in the name."

-- Uriel, Ghost Story, Jim Butcher

Comment author: somervta 04 April 2014 08:25:02AM 0 points [-]

I love the character of Uriel in the Dresden Files. I find his interpretation of the Fallen very interesting also.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 04 April 2014 01:24:36AM 20 points [-]

Today is already the tomorrow which the bad economist yesterday urged us to ignore.

-- Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 04 April 2014 11:28:43PM 0 points [-]

And it seems to be going pretty well!

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 06 April 2014 04:16:01AM 16 points [-]

Ah, but you have not seen the counterfactual.

Comment author: Cyan 03 April 2014 05:59:38PM *  25 points [-]

It is, in fact, a very good rule to be especially suspicious of work that says what you want to hear, precisely because the will to believe is a natural human tendency that must be fought.

- Paul Krugman

Comment author: B_For_Bandana 03 April 2014 12:27:32AM *  2 points [-]

(Edited to add context)

Context: The speakers work for a railroad. An important customer has just fired them in favor of a competitor, the Phoenix-Durango Railroad.

Jim Taggart [Company president, antagonist]: "What does he expect? That we drop all our other shippers, sacrifice the interests of the whole country and give him all our trains?"

Eddie Willers [Junior exec, sympathetic character]: "Why, no. He doesn't expect anything. He just deals with the Phoenix-Durango."

  • Atlas Shrugged

It gets at the idea talked about here sometimes that reality has no obligation to give you tests you can pass; sometimes you just fail and that's it.

ETA: On reflection, what I think the quote really gets at is that Taggart cannot understand that his terminal goals may be only someone else's instrumental goals, that other people are not extensions of himself. Taggart's terminal goal is to run as many trains as possible. If he can help a customer, then the customer is happy to have Taggart carry his freight, and Taggart's terminal goal aligns with the customer's instrumental goal. But the customer's terminal goal is not to give Taggart Inc. business, but just to get his freight shipped. If the customer can find a better alternative, like competing railroad, he'll switch. For Taggart, of course, that is not a better alternative at all, hence his anger and confusion.

(Apologies for lack of context initially).

Comment author: Cyan 03 April 2014 06:11:28PM 9 points [-]

Without context, it's a bit difficult to see how this is a rationality quote. Not everyone here has read Atlas Shrugged...

Comment author: gwern 03 April 2014 09:19:07PM 3 points [-]

I've read AS a while ago, and I still don't remember enough of the context to interpret this quote...

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 April 2014 09:49:31PM 1 point [-]

Dogs know how to swim, but it’s unlikely they know any truths describing their activities.

-- Richard Fumerton, Epistemology

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 09 April 2014 01:18:00AM 1 point [-]

"Go work in AI for a while, then come back and write a book on epistemology," he thought.

Comment author: [deleted] 09 April 2014 02:06:06AM 3 points [-]

Upon reading this, he wanted to map out the argumentative space in his head and decided to try to draw a line at one end, saying "Lets not get nuts. Mercury thermometers can react differentially to temperature, but they don't know how hot it is."

Comment author: Nominull 28 April 2014 06:31:11PM 2 points [-]

[citation needed]

Comment author: MugaSofer 08 April 2014 08:50:29AM 4 points [-]

Really? So, say, if I put a bone on the other side of the river, the dog doesn't know that it can swim across?

Comment author: RichardKennaway 06 April 2014 07:19:17PM 5 points [-]

Dogs know how to swim, but it’s unlikely they know any truths describing their activities.

How would one tell?

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 07 April 2014 09:41:05PM 6 points [-]

How would one tell?

First, you offer them a sequence of bets such that...oh wait.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 04 April 2014 11:31:30PM -2 points [-]

Do dogs not know that bones are nice?

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 April 2014 09:48:40PM *  2 points [-]

-- Meta --

Shouldn't this be in Main rather than Discussion? I PM'ed the author, but didn't get a response.

EDIT: Thanks.

Comment author: Benito 02 April 2014 06:15:24PM *  18 points [-]

“I propose we simply postpone the worrisome question of what really has a mind, about what the proper domain of the intentional stance is. Whatever the right answer to that question is—if it has a right answer—this will not jeopardize the plain fact that the intentional stance works remarkably well as a prediction method in these other areas, almost as well as it works in our daily lives as folk psychologists dealing with other people. This move of mine annoys and frustrates some philosophers, who want to blow the whistle and insist on properly settling the issue of what a mind, a belief, a desire is before taking another step. Define your terms, sir! No, I won’t. That would be premature. I want to explore first the power and the extent of application of this good trick, the intentional stance. Once we see what it is good for, and why, we can come back and ask ourselves if we still feel the need for formal, watertight definitions. My move is an instance of nibbling on a tough problem instead of trying to eat (and digest) the whole thing from the outset. “Many of the thinking tools I will be demonstrating are good at nibbling, at roughly locating a few “fixed” points that will help us see the general shape of the problem. In Elbow Room (1984a), o compared my method to the sculptor’s method of roughing out the form in a block of marble, approaching the final surfaces cautiously, modestly, working by successive approximation. Many philosophers apparently cannot work that way and have to secure (or so they think) the utterly fixed boundaries of their problems and possible solutions before they can venture any hypotheses.”

-Daniel Dennett, Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking, Chapter 18 "The Intentional Stance" [Bold is original]

Reminded me of the idea of 'hacking away at the edges'.

Comment author: shminux 03 April 2014 08:15:28PM 0 points [-]

Define your terms, sir! No, I won’t.

As far as I understand, he actually does define his terms. Dennett defines a mind as a rational agent/decision algorithm (subject to evolutionary baggage and bugs in the algorithm). Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Comment author: Benito 03 April 2014 08:21:31PM 7 points [-]

At this point in the book, he certainly hasn't reached that conclusion. He's merely given parameters under which taking the Intentional Stance is a good idea; when it's useful to treat something as having a mind, beliefs, desires, etc. This, he says, will be a useful stepping stone to figuring out what minds and beliefs and desires really are, and how to know where they exist in this world.

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 02 April 2014 05:53:47PM *  46 points [-]

The mathematician and Fields medalist Vladimir Voevodsky on using automated proof assistants in mathematics:

[Following the discovery of some errors in his earlier work:] I think it was at this moment that I largely stopped doing what is called “curiosity driven research” and started to think seriously about the future.

[...]

A technical argument by a trusted author, which is hard to check and looks similar to arguments known to be correct, is hardly ever checked in detail.

[...]

It soon became clear that the only real long-term solution to the problems that I encountered is to start using computers in the verification of mathematical reasoning.

[...]

Among mathematicians computer proof verification was almost a forbidden subject. A conversation started about the need for computer proof assistants would invariably drift to the Goedel Incompleteness Theorem (which has nothing to do with the actual problem) or to one or two cases of verification of already existing proofs, which were used only to demonstrate how impractical the whole idea was.

[...]

I now do my mathematics with a proof assistant and do not have to worry all the time about mistakes in my arguments or about how to convince others that my arguments are correct.

From a March 26, 2014 talk. Slides available here.

Comment author: JeremyHahn 04 April 2014 06:33:22AM 4 points [-]

Computer scientists seem much more ready to adopt the language of homotopy type theory than homotopy theorists at the moment. It should be noted that there are many competing new languages for expressing the insights garnered by infinity groupoids. Though Voevodsky's language is the only one that has any connection to computers, the competing language of quasi-categories is more popular.

Comment author: DanielLC 04 April 2014 03:04:51AM 2 points [-]

I know you're not supposed to quote yourself, but I came up with a cool saying about this a while back and I just want to share it.

Computer proof verification is like taking off and nuking the whole site from orbit: it's the only way to be sure.

Comment author: wuncidunci 03 April 2014 08:26:53AM 6 points [-]

A video of the whole talk is available here.

Comment author: khafra 03 April 2014 01:53:38PM 4 points [-]

And his textbook on the new univalent foundations of mathematics in homotopy type theory is here.

Comment author: JeremyHahn 04 April 2014 06:23:43AM 6 points [-]

It is misleading to attribute that book solely to Voevodsky.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 02 April 2014 11:21:01AM *  38 points [-]

It is easier to fight for one's principles than to live up to them.

-- Alfred Adler

ADDED: Source: http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Alfred_Adler

Quoted in: Phyllis Bottome, Alfred Adler: Apostle of Freedom (1939), ch. 5

Problems of Neurosis: A Book of Case Histories (1929)

Comment author: Benito 03 April 2014 08:10:35PM *  62 points [-]

Comedian Simon Munnery:

Many are willing to suffer for their art; few are willing to learn how to draw.

Comment author: whales 02 April 2014 01:49:57AM *  23 points [-]

He said:

When you play bridge with beginners—when you try to help them out—you give them some general rules to go by. Then they follow the rule and something goes wrong. But if you'd had their hand you wouldn't have played the thing you told them to play, because you'd have seen all the reasons the rule did not apply.

from The Last Samurai by Helen DeWitt

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 02 April 2014 01:21:46AM 15 points [-]

A BS detection Heuristic.

You can tell if a discipline is BS if the degree depends severely on the prestige of the school granting it. I remember when I applied to MBA programs being told that anything outside the top 10 or 20 would be a waste of time. On the other hand a degree in mathematics is much less dependent on the shool (conditional on being above a certain level, so the heuristic would apply to the differene betwewn top 10 and top 2000 schools).

The same applies to research papers. In math and physics, a result posted on arXiv (with a minimum hurdle) is fine. In low quality fields like academic finance (where almost all academics are charlatans and all papers some form of complicated storytelling), the "prestige" of the journal is the sole criterion.

Nassim Taleb

Comment author: VAuroch 05 April 2014 04:48:38AM 4 points [-]

By that standard, all academic disciplines are BS disciplines.

Comment author: MugaSofer 04 May 2014 01:43:39PM *  1 point [-]

I believe that is the intended meaning, yes.

Comment author: VAuroch 04 May 2014 06:47:58PM -1 points [-]

Can't be. You can't draw a distinction within a category by separating it into two subcategories one of which is empty.