You are making a mistake in reasoning if you don't change your belief through that evidence. Your belief should change by orders of magnitude. A change from 10^{-18} to 10^{-15} is a strong change.
Where do those numbers come from?
In this case they come from me. Feel free to post your own numbers.
The point of choosing Zeus as an example is that it's a claim that probably not going to mindkill anyone. That makes it easier to talk about the principles than using an example where the updating actually matters.
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are:
And one new rule: