What I'm saying is that whether you say "X is untrue" or "X is extremely unlikely", when considering the evidence you have for and against X, it is very possible that what happens in your brain when thinking about X is the same thing.
Disagree. Most people use "unlikely" for something that fits their model but is unlikely, e.g., winning the lottery, having black come up ten times in a row in a game of roulette, two bullets colliding in mid air. "Untrue" is used for something that one's model says is impossible, e.g, Zeus or ghosts existing.
I am confused now. Did you properly read my post? What you say here is 'I disagree, what you said is correct.'
To try and restate myself, most people use 'unlikely' like you said, but some, many of whom frequent this site, use it for 'so unlikely it is as good as impossible', and this difference can cause communication issues.
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are:
And one new rule: