nshepperd comments on Too good to be true - LessWrong

24 Post author: PhilGoetz 11 July 2014 08:16PM

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Comment author: nshepperd 12 July 2014 02:26:47PM 12 points [-]

5 sigma (one chance in a million of being wrong)

Careful! That's a one chance in a million of a fluke occuring (given the null hypothesis). Probability of being wrong is P(~H1 | 5 sigma) rather than P(5 sigma | H0), and on the whole unmeasurable. :)