jbay comments on Too good to be true - LessWrong

24 Post author: PhilGoetz 11 July 2014 08:16PM

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Comment author: jbay 17 July 2014 12:39:12PM *  2 points [-]

How does this work for a binary quantity?

If your experiment tells you that [x > 45] with 99% confidence, you may in certain cases be able to confidently transform that to [x > 60] with 95% confidence.

For example, if your experiment tells you that the mass of the Q particle is 1.5034(42) with 99% confidence, maybe you can say instead that it's 1.50344(2) with 95% confidence.

If your experiment happens to tell you that [particle Q exists] is true with 99% confidence, what kind of transformation can you apply to get 95% confidence instead? Discard some of your evidence? Add noise into your sensor readings?

Roll dice before reporting the answer?

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 17 July 2014 02:56:56PM 1 point [-]

We're not talking about a binary quantity.