DanielLC comments on Too good to be true - LessWrong

24 Post author: PhilGoetz 11 July 2014 08:16PM

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Comment author: DanielLC 21 July 2014 04:13:03AM 2 points [-]

As the original article says, if there was no effect, you'd expect a few studies to get p < 0.05 by chance. Similarly, if there was no effect, you'd expect a few studies to get p > 0.95 by chance, suggesting that vaccines prevent autism. If vaccines do prevent autism, then it would be even more likely to have p > 0.95.