halcyon comments on Knightian Uncertainty: Bayesian Agents and the MMEU rule - LessWrong

15 Post author: So8res 04 August 2014 02:05PM

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Comment author: halcyon 08 August 2014 03:59:53PM 2 points [-]

No matter how obvious your reasoning may appear to you, there is someone out there stupid enough to have thought the contrary. Believe it or not, this series goes a long way towards dissipating my pessimism about the world. My subconscious really believed it is a fact that on average, nature tends to destroy our mortal ambitions, and that's why it is dangerous to Tempt Fate.

I have always known this is a theological outlook, but I tried to deal with it by avoiding thoughts like that rather than marshaling positive arguments against it. After reading this, I consciously understand, to a significantly greater degree, why it doesn't actually make sense to generalize those thought processes for use in reasoning. I like this much better than just intuitively labeling them as low status. Thank you.