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Jiro comments on Causal decision theory is unsatisfactory - LessWrong
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One possible interpretation of "if I always cooperate, what would happen if I don't" is "what is the limit, as X approaches 1, of 'if I cooperate with probability X, what would happen if I don't'?"
This doesn't reasonably map onto the 1=2 example.
Right. There seems to be a discontinuity, as the limit of CDT (p->0) is not CDT (p=0). I wonder if this is the root of the issue.