IlyaShpitser comments on Causal decision theory is unsatisfactory - LessWrong

20 Post author: So8res 13 September 2014 05:05PM

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Comment author: V_V 14 September 2014 07:18:31AM *  0 points [-]

CDT is the academic standard decision theory. Economics, statistics, and philosophy all assume (or, indeed, define) that rational reasoners use causal decision theory to choose between available actions.

Reference?

I'm under the impression that Expected (Von Neumann–Morgenstern) Utility Maximization, aka Evidential Decision Theory is generally considered the ideal theory, while CDT was originally considered as an approximation used to make the computation tractable.
In 1981 Gibbard, Harper and Lewis started to argue that CDT was superior to Expected Utility Maximization (which they renamed as EDT), and their ideas were further developed by Pearl, but as far as I know, these theories are not mainstream outside the subfield of causal graphical models founded by Pearl.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 14 September 2014 07:44:00AM *  3 points [-]

but as far as I know

You need to do more reading. CDT is basically what all of statistics, econometrics, etc. standardized on now (admittedly under a different name of 'potential outcomes'), since at least the 70s. There is no single reference, since it's a huge area, but start with "Rubin-Neyman causal model." Many do not agree with Pearl on various points, but almost everyone uses potential outcomes as a starting point, and from there CDT falls right out.

The subfield of causal graphical models started with Wright's path analysis papers in the 1920s, by the way.

edit: Changed Neyman to Wright, I somehow managed to get them confused :(.

Comment author: V_V 14 September 2014 07:58:10AM 1 point [-]

This looks like an approach to model inference given the data, while CDT, in the sense the OP is talking about, is an approach to decision making given the model.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 14 September 2014 08:03:55AM *  5 points [-]

I mean this in the nicest possible way, but please understand that if you try to google for five minutes, you are going to be outputting nonsense on this topic (and indeed lots of topics). Seriously, do some reading: this stuff is not simple.

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